Do Favourites Really Win More In The First 5 Races????
 

I have heard that on average favourites win more in the first 5 races of each meeting.

Is this a fact or fallacy? Can anyone confirm any stats on this?

Cheers,
Mark

Yes.

Someone will have stats. The highest number of favs win the first race, and they gradually decline as you go, virtually in a line.

Thank you Mark. The second question then is why this actually happens??

Race clubs program races first where the favourites win?? Who knows???

This has been discussed here plenty of times and the general consensus (if my memory serves me correctly) was that the bigger more open races are programmed later in the day to boost the divi's on the doubles, quad's etc.

Very interesting. So if you have a system that relies on the Fav, it would be interesting to see the stats for the 1st 5 or 6 favs and if you relied on beating the fav then check the stats for the last 4 or 5 races of the day.

I am going to check that for mine.

The first races of a meet are usually filler races. Races to fill the time while the spectators get there and settled. They are generally the lower grade races mainly maidens. In these races one or two horses have some documented form having already raced. These get to be favorites by lack of form elsewhere. Others have never raced and unless they are outstanding generally fail. There needs to be some experience to win.

I don't know that this is correct (somebody please prove me wrong) my info tells me that there is almost no discrepancy any track, any condition, any type of race, etc etc etc, winning favs remains the same and produces about 15% LOT.


Me thinks the only criteria could be in the level, of odds either pre-post or actual

Race 1 has the highest SR of approx 36% but worst ROI due to its very low prices.

Race 8 has the lowest SR of 24%

But it is also the race that nearly breaks even instead of losing like the other do,

due to its higher than average price offered.

You could make good money laying all <=2.00 favs in race No.1
Their SR is lower than the average of winning. in those races

Bhagwan
Hi
I just reread you post and digested the rules again. Race #1.
I was doing the exercise anyway so I will still post. On my data 43691 races
Fav=<$2 6011 races 3044 wins 50.64%. But this is a sliding scale.
$1.50 ...60%
$1.60 ...57%
$1.70 ...51%
$1.80 ...52%
$1.90 ...45.8%
$2.00 ...41.73%
I can not test to first race but I would be limiting the bets to above $1.90.
Beton