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-   -   Favourite-2nd Favourite Stats (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21830)

mattio 14th June 2011 02:05 PM

Favourite-2nd Favourite Stats
 
Sorry if this has been covered in another thread but I did a search and couldn't find what I was after. I am testing a lay theory of laying field with the only loss occuring on the 2nd favourite. Can someone with a good database breakdown the stats of the 2nd favourite winning when compared to the favourite's price?

For example if the favourite's price range is <$2, $2-$3, $3-$4, >$4, etc, how often does the second favourite win? Also any stats on the price of the 2nd fav in those ranges to would be good for example if the fav is <$2 and the 2nd fav is $2-$3, $3-$4 or <$4 what are the stats etc.

If someone can provide this information I will share my findings with everyone, hopefully the system I am considering will have some legs. I feel that the key to this is in the staking used (assuming the percentages are right).

Cheers,

Mat.

beton 14th June 2011 02:15 PM

Mattio This may help you.
It is the 2nd fav win odds in relation the the fav's odds.
Beton

Meeting (All)
Distance (All)
Track (All)
Horses In Race (All)

% Second Fav Winners Second Fav. Win Odds
Fav. Win Odds $2.00 to $3.00 $2.51 to $3.00 $3.01 to $3.50 $3.01 to $4.00 $4.01 to $4.50 $4.51 to $5.00 $5.01 to $5.50 $5.51 to $6.00 $6.01 to $6.50 $6.51 to $7.00 > $7.00 Grand Total
$1.00 to $1.99 46.67% 32.38% 30.94% 22.08% 19.39% 19.49% 15.10% 15.16% 11.36% 14.42% 9.07% 16.98%
$2.00 to $3.00 38.06% 32.28% 28.53% 23.93% 20.30% 18.25% 15.87% 13.32% 14.90% 11.33% 9.86% 20.60%
$2.51 to $3.00 27.94% 28.64% 24.23% 19.85% 17.95% 17.12% 16.07% 15.63% 11.33% 7.91% 21.57%
$3.01 to $3.50 24.55% 22.96% 18.32% 16.68% 15.76% 12.47% 11.64% 12.00% 13.64% 19.14%
$3.01 to $4.00 23.11% 18.99% 16.90% 16.56% 15.75% 13.88% 16.18% 6.90% 18.44%
$4.01 to $5.00 18.10% 18.04% 17.94% 13.64% 14.34% 10.99% 13.64% 17.06%
> $5 17.09% 15.28% 15.71% 11.46% 11.11% 15.02%
Grand Total 38.93% 30.53% 27.71% 23.45% 19.18% 17.73% 16.57% 14.40% 13.80% 12.48% 9.63% 19.33%

mattio 14th June 2011 02:27 PM

Thanks Beton, I am having trouble deciphering what you wrote, are you able to put this into a spreadsheet and attach it so I can see more clearly what you mean?

Cheers,

Mat.

Bhagwan 14th June 2011 03:18 PM

Tip:
Because ProPun use a program that automatically limits the space between words to one space , even though we may use 4 spaces to separate things , it will bunch everything up to just one space.

So

If we place a ---- or ...... between items , it will space things out nicely so things don't look bunched up .

mattio 14th June 2011 03:19 PM

Thanks Bhagwan, I will copy the info and try your suggestion.

Cheers,

Mat.

mattio 14th June 2011 03:35 PM

Ok, I still can't work it out, Beton would you mind putting it into a spreadsheet and dumbing it down a bit for me? Also I think that you may have missed the first column of favourite odds >$2?

Cheers,

Mat.

lomaca 14th June 2011 03:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
Mattio This may help you.
It is the 2nd fav win odds in relation the the fav's odds.
Beton

Meeting (All)
Distance (All)
Track (All)
Horses In Race (All)

% Second Fav Winners Second Fav. Win Odds
Fav. Win Odds $2.00 to $3.00 $2.51 to $3.00 $3.01 to $3.50 $3.01 to $4.00 $4.01 to $4.50 $4.51 to $5.00 $5.01 to $5.50 $5.51 to $6.00 $6.01 to $6.50 $6.51 to $7.00 > $7.00 Grand Total
$1.00 to $1.99 46.67% 32.38% 30.94% 22.08% 19.39% 19.49% 15.10% 15.16% 11.36% 14.42% 9.07% 16.98%
$2.00 to $3.00 38.06% 32.28% 28.53% 23.93% 20.30% 18.25% 15.87% 13.32% 14.90% 11.33% 9.86% 20.60%
$2.51 to $3.00 27.94% 28.64% 24.23% 19.85% 17.95% 17.12% 16.07% 15.63% 11.33% 7.91% 21.57%
$3.01 to $3.50 24.55% 22.96% 18.32% 16.68% 15.76% 12.47% 11.64% 12.00% 13.64% 19.14%
$3.01 to $4.00 23.11% 18.99% 16.90% 16.56% 15.75% 13.88% 16.18% 6.90% 18.44%
$4.01 to $5.00 18.10% 18.04% 17.94% 13.64% 14.34% 10.99% 13.64% 17.06%
> $5 17.09% 15.28% 15.71% 11.46% 11.11% 15.02%
Grand Total 38.93% 30.53% 27.71% 23.45% 19.18% 17.73% 16.57% 14.40% 13.80% 12.48% 9.63% 19.33%
Code:
% Second Fav Winners Second Fav. Win Odds Fav. Win Odds $2.00 to $3.00 $2.51 to $3.00 $3.01 to $3.50 $3.01 to $4.00 $4.01 to $4.50 $4.51 to $5.00 $5.01 to $5.50 $5.51 to $6.00 $6.01 to $6.50 $6.51 to $7.00 > $7.00 Grand Total $1.00 to $1.99 46.67% 32.38% 30.94% 22.08% 19.39% 19.49% 15.10% 15.16% 11.36% 14.42% 9.07% 16.98% $2.00 to $3.00 38.06% 32.28% 28.53% 23.93% 20.30% 18.25% 15.87% 13.32% 14.90% 11.33% 9.86% 20.60% $2.51 to $3.00 27.94% 28.64% 24.23% 19.85% 17.95% 17.12% 16.07% 15.63% 11.33% 7.91% 21.57% $3.01 to $3.50 24.55% 22.96% 18.32% 16.68% 15.76% 12.47% 11.64% 12.00% 13.64% 19.14% $3.01 to $4.00 23.11% 18.99% 16.90% 16.56% 15.75% 13.88% 16.18% 6.90% 18.44% $4.01 to $5.00 18.10% 18.04% 17.94% 13.64% 14.34% 10.99% 13.64% 17.06% > $5 17.09% 15.28% 15.71% 11.46% 11.11% 15.02% Grand Total 38.93% 30.53% 27.71% 23.45% 19.18% 17.73% 16.57% 14.40% 13.80% 12.48% 9.63% 19.33%


Is this any better?
Not really, Oh well

beton 14th June 2011 04:01 PM

Lomaca Hi
better than I could do but I have only just learnt how to identify a computor.
Mattio the dumbed down version emailed to you. That was a boon because I found out that I could do something else which is why you get more info.
I would be interested in the results.
Beton

mattio 14th June 2011 04:22 PM

beton/lomaca,

Thanks for the help guys, I will post up my findings once I have run a few scenarios.

Cheers,

Mat.


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