How to pick losing favourites
 

Hi All,

I wanted to have a discussion re favourites. From your experience what the major factors why favourites lose and what one should look out for?

Up in distance by more than 200m
Up in class from maiden to class 1 plus
Days since last run
Bad jockeys

Look forward to your thoughts.

Cheers, Marksto2

Marksto2
The strike rate of favorites are directly proportional to the price. It is indirectly proportional to the number of runners. Distance and track conditions are reasonably even. Something that I cannot check at present is class. Having said that I have noticed that in maidens and lower class races the favorite strike rate per price range belies the average. More $2 favorites fall in lower class races than $2 favorites in opens.
I hope this helps. Beton

Thanks Beton. This does help. Confirms that when betting against the favourite best to look for the low class races where these favs are at false odds. I generally start backing second third and fourth favourites in these types of races with the Money Factory staking plan. Seems to work but wan to be more selective in the race I do this on and seeking to find those races with false favourites to bet against with the next few in the market.

One thing you might check up on is drifting Favourites.

But ALWAYS REMEMBER , the animal doesn't know it is favourite.
So whatever makes Favourites fail , should apply equally as well to all the other contenders in the race.

Type "conversely" into the search facility.
The thread titled this is a pretty good start.

Read many years ago that one should never back a favourite that finished more than 3 lengths from the winner at its last start...

It's alleged that a beaten last start fav has a S/R of 18%

Would be a big help if we define "Favourite"

Is it the Pre-post, the SP, the Opening, the Fixed Price or whatever.
Chopping and changing is the short way to the poorhouse. IMHO.

Isn't the fav as per records after the event. The shortest price horse for the race after all bets are settled. All the rest are something totally different. The question is to be able to find which are true favs I.E. the one that wins and how to recognize the false fav being the one that losses two thirds of the time.

True Beton.