following the ratings
 

i have been trialling the unitab ratings where the favourite is well down in the ratings,then backing the 100% plus the next closest. either dutch or level stakes. check brisbane races sat.20/8/11 in particular r2.... does anyone have records for this over a longer period? cheers

Hi Oldtimers,

What do you consider "well down in the ratings"?

The favourite in race 2 at Doomben was rated 99 where the winner was rated 95 and the second placed horse rated 100. These were the 3rd and top rated horses. I can't see how you would back the winner based on your "rules".

I Believe, Oldtimers meant the Fav was well down in the field (ie lower half) and was not the 100rater.

I thought I'd continue this thread rather than start a new one.

Does anyone know/have records of the Unitab 100 rater? Basically the strike rate but more importantly the profit/loss for an extended period of time whether it be backing or laying. Thanks in advance.

The 100ptrs
If also one of RadioTAB selections

1st 33%SR -15% LOT

2nd 25%SR -13% LOT

3rd 20%SR -17% LOT

Average if in top 3 selections 25%SR -15% LOT

UniTAB prices.

So if using Betfair prices, for an approx 15% greater, which is accounting for commission.
One should approx break even if using Betfair.

That's not a bad starting point, just eliminate 1 selection from 8 races & your in profit by approx +12.5% POT.
Using Betfair prices.
Or
Successfully lay 1 in 8 races & your miles in front.

Apparently I was reading somewhere that Backing all the 100ptr $20+ shots, shows a profit.

That sample is based on 50,000 races.

Hi Oldtimers,

When you say Dutch the selection, I am assuming you are targeting 2+ runners.

Is that right?

If so which 2 do you take.

Thanks very much Bhagwan. Those strike rates are virtually like the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favs straight out selections or have I got those wrong?

You (or someone else) don't happen to have just the 100 rater stats and profit/loss by themselves (without the radiotab picks) by any chance?

UNITab Top 100

random sample (oct 2010 - sept 2011) each month represented (min 10 races/mth) -- did not include race if 100 scratched (ie didn't take the next best) or more than 1 in race -- used UNITab prices

N = 151
SR 22.5% (expect long term ~SR23.5%)
AR $3.6 (expect long term ~AR$3.82)
POT -19% (expect long term POT~ -10.2%)

variance -- for every 150 races -- 95% of the time i would expect a SR between 17% - 30%

with an AR of ~$3.8 you would need SR26.5% to break even

have the best day!

At $3.60 the SR for the top fav is 26.17% on a 43000 sample. Beton