heavy tracks
 

I am having to deal with a spate of heavy tracks again. My method has been to eliminate all horses from my ratings where the handicapper's weight is greater than 55.5 kg as I have found this useful in the past, especially for Heavy 6+. It worked well for me in Brisbane last Sat (heavy 8). What do you think?

I feel that my approach is a bit heavy handed (sorry about the pun) and I would like to find stats that show the % of horses that win carrying greater than 55.5 kg on heavy tracks compared with good tracks.

gunny

gunny72 -- comparison of horses carrying > 55.5 kg on good and heavy tracks

the results don't look exciting

G -- N = 31513 SR 11.3% AR $7.27 POT -17.9%
H -- N = 5659 SR 12% AR $7.44 POT -10.6%

source: BetSelector Platinum Professional
filters: weight to carry -- min [56kg+] track condition [GH]
period: 1 jan 2011 - 30 sept 2011

there is NO potential to make a long term profit from either so your elimination rule has merit

I use a system similar to this but use horses under a certain weight of the top weighted horse

Great data ixlat0. Thanks.

I just think my ratings overrate horses with higher weights on heavy tracks and the higher rated with less weight seem to provide better value.
gunny

Considering 55.5kg and under worked again today for my ratings in Brisbane (heavy 8) with Rundle at $17 but I did miss Pretty Pins $3.20. I also missed Eight Pieces $4.80 when the track was changed to a Slow7 and Jungle Heat became the selection and came second. I will take a look at kgs below the top weight.