Can a Profit be made chasing Favs
 

Generally the answer is no .
If one bets every fav that moves.

So I used the UB System checker to see what it would reveal.

RULES
Good Track only.
Anything else & it shows a loss.

TAB No. 5-9
Anything less & it shows a loss.

Ran 1st-5th LS

Result
48% SR
39% POT


There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.

There were 120 selections for the System
There were 57 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 47.5%
There were $167.05 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $47.05 or a percentage profit/loss of 39.21%

This is only a starting point.
It needs to go through more data.


What is interesting is that when it comes to chasing profitable Favs , the track has to be rated nothing but Good.

Maybe someone out there has a larger data base to run this through.

So rules are Fav that is tab number 5-9 that finished 1st to 5th ls and today is good track.

Bhagwan,

Interesting, but I think you may have blown a fuse, i.e.

I ran that through my own data base of just over 10,000 favs, here is the result:

957 qualifiers for 293 wins S/R =30.62% (surprise surprise) -7.26%LOT
583 Plce S/R = 60.92% -3.71% LOT

What doesn't make sense is only 120 qualifiers from 30,000??? has to be something wrong.

Mine is at BoB, best tote/sp, best tote, country best, as available, but there is no way that BF SP is better than that on favs, especially then 5% commission.

But actually the end figure is not that bad!

I agree party there is something wrong with the data used in that free tester.

For example -2yo horses:

There were 204 selections for the System
There were 24 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 11.76%
There were $181.59 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-22.41 or a percentage profit/loss of -10.99%




Test Another System

The Rules used were : age < 3





Only 204 2yo horses in that time?

Young Buck,
when you take into account that UB only started the data base about the middle of this year:

1. very few 2YO's would have registered as a runner up to 1 August (could be counted onm one hand).

2. UB also has stated that keeping the data base current is something done out of hours (meaning the weekends racing may not be entered as yet).

3. 2YO races do not start until mid September (give or take) -

I would only expect 20 odd races to be run up to this time and believe the figures you have shown are about right.

cheers

Thanks Elk, wasn't really sure when this was started, and was never one to keep close track on the 'seasons' so to speak.

Thanks for clearing it up.

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 1378 1376
Races Won: 452 859
S.R./Race: 32.8% 62.4%
Outlay($): 1378.00 1376.00
Return : 1292.90 1292.40
$ Profit : -85.10 -83.60
% P.O.T. : -6.2% -6.1%
Av Win Div: 2.86
Av Plc Div: 1.50
Win SR/Seln: 32.8
Plc SR/Seln: 62.3
Thru Betselector Unitab prices

Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 34.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 64.7%
Average Win Dividend : $2.83
Average Plc Dividend : $1.49

WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 1105 1103
Races Won: 379 715
S.R./Race: 34.3% 64.8%
Outlay($): 1105.00 1103.00
Return : 1072.20 1065.78
$ Profit : -32.80 -37.22
% P.O.T. : -3.0% -3.4%

Last start pos 1-3

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 884 882
Races Won: 317 587
S.R./Race: 35.9% 66.6%
Outlay($): 884.00 882.00
Return : 875.60 867.20
$ Profit : -8.40 -14.80
% P.O.T. : -1.0% -1.7%

Av Win Div: 2.76
Av Plc Div: 1.48
Win SR/Seln: 35.9
Plc SR/Seln: 66.4
Last start 1-2

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 573 573
Races Won: 219 389
S.R./Race: 38.2% 67.9%
Outlay($): 573.00 573.00
Return : 577.40 567.14
$ Profit : 4.40 -5.86
% P.O.T. : 0.8% -1.0%
Av Win Div: 2.64
Av Plc Div: 1.46
Win SR/Seln: 38.2
Plc SR/Seln: 67.9

LSW

note all test had min career wins =1 to eliminate maidens

This test was positive from go to whoa