Testing Two Systems
 

This month I’m going to test out two systems and see how they go. If they fall over BIG TIME in the first few days or week I’ll stop testing them. I know the forum curse will strike for sure but hopefully we can ride it out.

BACKING FAVOURITES $2 AND UNDER :rolleyes:
The first system for testing is backing the first fave if it is $2 and under. This will be for the gallops and trots.

UB’s system tester has the following stats for the gallops since August 2011:
There were 53754 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.
There were 560 selections for the System
There were 324 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 57.86%
There were $540.75 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-19.25 or a percentage profit/loss of -3.44%

So a $19 loss in 6 months.

The twist I will be using is that I will use 100% of the profit of the previous bet onto the base stake for the next bet.

For example - Say $1 stake. The first bet will be $1 at say $1.80 fave. It wins making me a profit of $0.80. This means the stake for the next bet is $1.80 ($1 stake + 80c profit). The next fave is $1.70. If this wins the profit will be $1.26 (win bet $3.06-stake of $1.80). This means that the next bet will be $1.26 plus the base stake of $1 making it $2.26.

It is basically a 2 x parlay/all up bet. This way when a loss occurs (and we have some wins in the bank) then we will end up with more profit than betting level stakes – well that’s the theory anyway. I’m sure some of you can shoot me down here but we’ll see what happens.

I’ve only tested it for the last few days and it has been a bit up and down but overall in profit +3.98, -1.41, +14.23, -5.75, +5.87 for a total of +16.92 units.

I will not have a profit stop but I will have a stop loss of say –6 units. I will adjust the stop up (if it’s in profit) to 6 units behind the total after a loss. I won’t use a pure trailing stop as, if a big bet loses, I would be stopped out however I would of only lost 1 unit in that case.

I will be betting for real at the minimum $5 betfair amount (as I reckon I’ll get in trouble pretty soon if I keep up the $1 bets). This makes the stop loss $30. I can only really afford to throw about $100 at this (that’s about 3 losing days), which is not much, but as I’ve had many bad experiences with system betting I don’t want to spend too much on it (I just want to find something that works automatically).

I hope it makes sense. I will list my other system for testing on another post.

PLACE SYSTEM

My other system for testing is a place system with the gallops. It seems to make a little bit of money but nothing spectacular. It’s probably hardly worth doing but maybe someone out there can tweak the staking or something, as it doesn’t do much at level stakes.

The selection criteria is 3 fold;
1. Betfair must be paying 3 places (less than 8 runners is fine as long as they are paying 3 places).
2. For Maiden races horse must have come 2nd in one of it’s last 3 starts (1 or 2 starts is fine as long as it’s come 2nd) Unitab used for checking.
2a. For all other races horse must have come 1st in one of it’s last 3 starts (1 or 2 starts is fine as long as it’s come 1st) Unitab used for checking.
3. Pick is the horse that is between $2 and $3 on the place market. If there is more than one selection then the pick is the one that is closest to $2 (the smaller dividend).

That’s it. I haven’t tested this too much so it probably won’t pan out but I have checked about 5 different days and it has been in profit on all those days.

I haven’t got time today to list any possible picks but I will in future if time permits. The selections can be easily checked on Unitab and the results on the Betfair results page (remember last 3 starts only).

The only other staking that I can think of (apart form the level stakes I will be checking them against) is maybe the 100% of previous profit (or maybe 50%) but I haven’t checked that.

I’m NOT using real money on this as I will using my account on the other system.

Selections for place system from the first 3 race meetings listed on TABonline (Unitab). It seems like a lot of bother for probably not many bets but I'll see what happens over the next few days. I might also check the other meetings tonight to see what would of happened.

Remember the selection is the closest to $2 for the place (paying 3 places).

Course Race Horse
Eagle Farm
2 - 1 3 11 12 15
4 - 1
5 - 2 9 13
6 - 6 9 11 12
7 - 1 4 5 10 12 13

Sandown
1 - 2 7
4 - 4 7 8
5 - 1 3 5 11 13 15 16 17
6 - 2 5 6 9 10 12
7 - 3 4 13

Kembla Grange
1 - 1 2 4 7
2 - 3 5 7 8 9
3 - 2 3 6 7
5 - 1 3 6 8
6 - 2 8
7 - 4 10 12

What do YOU think happened today? Of course I lost (what else was ever going to happen)? :rolleyes:

Results 1/2/12
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Odds On Fave System
This continued on from where it left off in pre-testing – WLWLW next was a………….you guessed it - Loss. This seems to be up and down unfortunately (1 unit is $5 for me by the way :( ).

13 bets
7 wins
53.8% SR
Profit/Loss –5.55 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
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Place System
The place system ended up great for the selections listed here but when I checked the other races today it fell right away. I might be better off just doing the main Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane races (whatever the first 3 meetings that are listed on the Unitab site are on the day).

The results for the 3 listed were:
Outlay 9 Units
Winnings 15.24 Units
Profit +6.24 Units (69% POT)

But Overall;
Outlay 25 Units
Winnings 23.91 Units
Loss –1.09 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
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By the way, my other bot was employed today doing the above place system but instead of using the picks it was merely picking the horse that was between $2 & $3 but the one closest to $2 in the place market, which included gallops and trots races. Because it went okay today I might also monitor that as it is an automatic set up rather than trawling the racing web site.

45 bets
23 wins
51.11% SR
Profit/Loss +6.20 Units
POT 13.77%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Possible selections for today for the place system (one runner, 3 places paid, lowest price above $2 for the place):

Course Race Horse
Rockhampton
1- 1 3 4 7 8
5- 2 3 5 9 10
6- 2 3 4 7
7- 4 5 8 11
8- 4 7 10

Hawkesbury
2- 6
3- 8
4- 1 12
5- 1
6- 3
7- 3 4 5 7 9
8- 2 4 8 10

Ballarat
1- 1 3 5 6 9 15
2- 1 9 12
5- 2 3 5 7
6- 4 7 9
7- 4 5 7 8 9
8- 2 3 4 5 6 7

Geraldton
1- 3 5
2- 2 11 12
4- 7
5- 1 2 5 7
6- 3 4 6 8 9 11
7- 2 3 6 8 10 11

I’ve stoped the bots with 4 Gloucester Park races to go as it is time for updating (and sleeping).

Results 2/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)
A bit up and down today but only a very small gain today.

Today
18 bets
12 wins
66.6% SR
Profit/Loss +0.64 Units

Overall
31 bets
19 wins
61.2% SR
Profit/Loss –4.91 Units :(
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
--------------------------------------
Selected Place System (Gallops Only)
GREAT result today. Now that’s what I’m talkin’ about!! :D

11 eligible races & only 1 loss. It doesn’t get much better than that (except one better)!

Results are in the attachment below.

Today
Outlay 11 Units
Winnings 21.50 Units
Profit/Loss +10.50 Units
POT 95.4%

Overall;
Outlay 36 Units
Winnings 45.41 Units
Profit/Loss +9.41 Units :)
POT 26.1%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
------------------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
40 bets
18 wins
45% SR
Profit/Loss +1.31 Units

Overall
85 bets
41 wins
48.2% SR
Profit/Loss +7.51 Units :)
POT 8.8%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Well done Ocho.

I do believe a profit can be had doing the place market.

I have been running my bot set to 2.20-5.50 Place price range & its been working a treat.
On Aust + UK+ US Horses & UK Dogs

My Bot can bet to...
Price to Take out 5%
or
Odds to win 3%

Target Profit 10%
Over 20 races.
With the option to re-down load & go again.

I noticed a dramatic increase in profit when Min price was set to 2.20 instead of 2.00 . Rightly or wrongly
It doesnt look much different in price but after say 50 bets it makes a big difference to POT.

Hi Bhagwan. Thanks for that.

With your settings of 2.20-5.50 are you backing ALL horses/dogs in that price range for the place or just a random one?

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I won't be listing the possible place selections today as they are too numerous to mention. There should be no shortage of races today to have a contender racing in. The rules need to apply though.

Its one selection per race.

If it's one selection per race then why such a wide price range? And does the bot take the closest to $2.50 or what?