Calling Chrome
 

Hi mate

My email has flipped out and I've lost all my addresses hence why I'm asking this on here.

What's your take on Betfair SP these days? You wrote that something's going on but did not elaborate. The SP's last Saturday were possibly the worst (from a layers point of view) that I have seen since I started following them. Pretty much negative across the board for almost every race. This on a day choc full of Group races which in the past have been the best.

ps If anyone knows how to recover lost addresses all help appreciated.

Depending how long ago this happened i would try windows system restore, right click the my computer icon and click properties you will find it in there, you can go back a few days or more this should solve the issue.

In regards to the SP i have seen similar findings, with the sheet i use to place my bets for the rated runners it shows back prices and SP, i have been placing bets about 10 seconds before start time and most times the SP is better than my price and this is not restricted to just the lower priced runners.

Actually I emailed you last week, this explains why you probably didn't receive it.
You are correct, something is going on.
BFSP turnover has not increased substantially over recent months according to my records.
Neither has it decreased substantially.
There is only one conclusion that can be made from the market percentages, but I'm reluctant to expand.

Suffice to say that I always wondered why layers weren't given the option to lay to payout x amount rather than liability.
Liability, unless you can calculate exactly, means that you are always over exposed on certain runners.
This in turn gives "a third party" opportunity to match the overexposure and then take any old price about outsiders up to and including 100% market.

Without getting too technical, the end result is that horses over a certain price have all been pushed higher, while the overexposed horses remain in the same ballpark.

The average market percentage on Australian races was in excess of 103% six months ago. This has vanished like magic without any turnover variation.
In fact they are now paying below 100% in most cases.

Two other members on this forum are wise to the caper as are a select few on the BF forum.

Shaun, thank you, all addresses are back.

Chrome, no I didn't receive anything from you. I've only noticed a change over the last few weeks, to my detriment as I bet bigger on SP over the carnivals, but stayed right out last Saturday. Last year (from memory) I went in to the tune of around $10000 on the Slipper and cleaned up when it came up around 107%, this year nothing, and it was one of the few races to go a touch over 100. I am reluctant to back SP as that's is not what I do.

Strangely there were quite a few good %'s on Sunday on light turnover.

This is exactly what I have noticed.
I have stopped laying double figure horses since CP gave me a few pointers, and the bottom line has improved, albeit slightly, as a result.
If what is happening is what I think is happening, and i have no reason to think otherwise, I reckon it is an effing disgrace.
Greed! How much do these thieving b######s want?

They got the exchange model correct and people flocked and fluttered to it.
It was a much needed and revolutionary portal, that finally gave some chance of getting set if you're a winner and basically better odds.

Unfortunately they botched the profit and commission business model entirely.
It's actually not a matter of greed in my opinion now, it's a matter of making up for some very poor mistakes and spending money like it's water.

I would hate to guess, but the future looks very bleak indeed.

They still retain a majority market share, but have lost a significant amount of that majority.

Anyone like to guess the amount of money spent on lawyers, applications, licences, advertising, site exchange games, needless beta site, forum improvements etc etc etc.
It's an upside down funnel at this point in time, and they are running out of clients and attracting almost nil new business.

Licence restrictions have seen them out of South Africa, part of America, they will be at least part out of Australia, France, Italy, Spain etc etc.

This is just my opinion, but users are just about fed up, they are sick of increasing fees and charges and losing access to markets left right and centre.

With some foresight and some industry nouse, it could all be repaired, but unfortunately they have already approached it all in the wrong way. They are almost out of options.
The need a complete and transparent fixed business plan of commission structure and industry tax.
It needs to be a guarantee of service to clients and the racing industry for x number of years.
The goal posts have to stop shifting, customers have to have confidence that they are not being taken advantage of behind closed doors with crossmatching and other internal bots.

So far today just about every SP market is under 100%

Yes CP you are probably right re the greed thing and yes they must have spent countless millions on lawyers etc.

Why in the name of fortune the TAB's, or indeed the Race clubs themselves, cannot set up an exchange I do not know.

because they can see where betfair is going and would rather run a risk free operation.

I hope you are wrong Shaun, but I fear you may be right.

Re the below 100% markets. The prosecution rests!!!