Interesting...?
 

I noticed favoured horses winning their fair share of races today, so out of interest I applied the following rules.

1) All horses with at least 3 career starts to be a qualifying race.
2) A maximum of 4 horses at single figures in the Tele market. Otherwise it's a no-race.
3) Back each at $1 to Win on Betfair S.P.

There were 59 selections, so the outlay was $59. The return was slightly over $71 (includes Betfair's 5% take out). Even the TAB divvies showed a small profit.

There were 18 races that qualified, and the winner was struck in 16 of them.

Tomorrow if I can I will list the selection in case anyone's interested. Hopefully today was just a normal day...

Micheal was that backing all runners in the qualifying races that were in single figures in the Tele market?

Hi Michael, just as a matter of interest, has the minimum bet on Betfair been reduced from $5 to $1,,...?

Paul

Mattio, that's correct, all the single prices that are shown in the Tele for the qualifying races.

I use the Tele market because over the years it seems to me to be accceptably accurate. I've also experimented with similar Bet methods but this one is more selective than the others, and the big advantage/difference is that I've never been able to accurately test them with Betfair.

I forgot to mention another rule - if any of the top three Tele faves are scratched then it also becomes a no-race.

Pauls123, I should have mentioned the $1 bet on S.P. was only hypothetical. Unfortunately the minimum is still $5.

Today was a bad day laying favourites, I clawed back a bit, but a lot of damage was done.
I'd suggest this was one of those days and quite different to the average.

Chrome,

As I read it here Mg is backing, not laying (quite a change in direction for him!)

However I would like to ask him if there is any difference in results (percentage-wise I guess) when the tips are AAP, or a named tipster. The former are computer generated, I suppose.

Chrome, after reading your comments about yesterday's faves I decided to check the results from other days.

I looked at nine random days and the results are:

39 qualifying races.
Outlay of $172 ($1 S.P. bets)
Return of $175.50.

Merriguy, I haven't checked results from any other tipping agencies, neurals etc, but could do so one day.

As the above results are break-even I might reconsider the method.

Yes, it was a tough day at the office, and so was last Saturday.

This will give you an idea of how variable favourite strike rates can be:

For 2012 so far 32.80%
January 31.30%
February 36.00%
March 30.40%
April 34.30%

Then first week April 31.90%
2nd week 35.30%
3rd week 35.10%

Today 36.80%
Saturday 38.00%
Friday 26.70%
Thursday 33.30%
Wednesday 35.10%
Tuesday 28.60%
Monday 25.00%

And as to Mark's comment, last Saturday stacks up perfectly 37.60%

On paper doesn't look so bad, but for me if it hits the average, I make money.
If it is like Saturday, last Wednesday or last Saturday I lose between 7 and 10 units. Friday, Monday and Tuesday were bottlers winning between 7 and 10 units, but turnover was lower, so finished the week just ahead.

What a rollercoaster, but I can't do it any other way myself.

using a different angle hit exactly the same roller coaster so there you go! ended up just ahead, after experiencing some very unnerving days!