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- - Late Mail and Top Tips (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23900)

Late Mail and Top Tips

Just something i was playing with today, ran this test from Mon 16-Sun 22

Rules

Must be the tipped as first selection for both Radio Tab and Guest Tipster and must also be the Lat Mail selection.

Must be 3 divis paying

Code:


Venue		Race	No	Runner				Win	Place
ARMIDALE 		1	1	BATTERED		1.70	1.20
ARMIDALE 		3	2	SUTTON SURPRISE			1.00
ARMIDALE 		6	2	EMAZON				1.70
TAREE 			1	2	HYENA				1.30
KILMORE 		4	5	HADRON			1.80	1.00
KILMORE 		7	2	ANKLETS			
SANDOWN 		5	6	LE REMAS		3.60	1.70
WERRIBEE 		7	4	FRUEHLING		1.90	1.40
CRANBOURNE 		2	8	SUBTLE CHARM		1.90	1.10
CRANBOURNE 		7	8	CHAMPAGNE RUBY		2.70	1.70
CRANBOURNE 		8	10	POISONOUS PRINCESS			
MORPHETTVILLE 		5	8	SARCASM			4.10	1.80
MORPHETTVILLE 		7	6	SHEILA'S STAR			1.30
MORPHETTVILLE 		8	6	BELDARA			4.40	1.70
ASCOT 			1	1	MISS SOLIS		1.50	1.10
ASCOT 			3	7	KALAHAAR		2.50	1.60
ASCOT 			5	3	MASCHINO			1.30
GOSFORD 		5	7	PURRFECT			1.30
GOSFORD 		6	7	MACARTHUR BULL			
GOSFORD 		7	12	HALLOWELL BELLE			1.40
BALLARAT 		4	4	ARLINGTON PARK			1.30
BALLARAT 		5	1	SYLVAN POWER			1.50
QUEANBEYAN 		2	7	GEECUP			
QUEANBEYAN 		4	5	GAME SET 'N' MATCH	3.10	1.50
QUEANBEYAN 		5	1	DUBAI RULER		1.40	1.30
QUEANBEYAN 		9	3	PEAL OF BELLS		2.90	1.60
							
Selections	26						
Wins	13	SR	50.00%	Profit	4.80	POT	18.46% A/Div	2.58
Places	22	SR	84.62%	Profit	7.50	POT	28.85% A/Div	1.35

Be careful there Shaun, these type of selections would be hugely overbet in my opinion. I would be testing for a few months to get a more accurate guide.

You can't be serious Shaun?

Tell you what I do. Before I post any simple idea that is going to excite people, I go back to the start of the year and check the results. I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernie

I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.

Can you really Bernie?

If so please put up the results post-haste.

Can I please ask that before you react so negatively to ideas and systems, that you do a little research yourself?

There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.

Thanks for sharing Shaun. :)

The Schmile

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSchmile

There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.:)

TheSchmile, you seem a little confused. I said a "simple idea like that". You have based a system around those rules. Different scenario altogether mate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernie

Do you think i am going to post a winning idea?

You could do a lot worse than follow a system like this, as much as i hate betfair these days they do offer better prices on the place option at times and using the 3 tabs to secure the best price place option is not a bad idea.

This was a simple idea nothing says people can't expand on it to filter the losers.

The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.

I agree, but easier said than done. Many have tried and many have failed.

I only looked at Late Mail selections a year or so ago and did a bit of an analysis over a few months.
They did end up losing quite a bit, however, they have really good or really bad patches.
Some days they win all over the place, other days not a cracker.
I guess with some extra filters you could weed out a lot of losers.

There have been heaps of posts related to the Late Mail. Many in which Shaun was involved. Wesmip did an in depth study and Partypooper has done his share of research along with many others. It's all there for those who are prepared to search.

Thanks for sharing your findings Shaun.

If one is considering using any real money, its up to the individual to do their own checking & possible improve on the general idea & make it their own.

That's the whole idea of sharing certain findings.

I sense a mean streak developing here.

I believe there is no need for uncharitable comments , otherwise no body, especially the newbies ,will put anything up for consideration.
Thus making the Forum empty as a ghost town.