TOOWOOMBA Race 7


27-Mar-03 CARLTON DRAUGHT WEETWOODHANDICAP
1300M
No. Name Bar Wght Form L3S
1 GOLDEN EYE 1 56.5 DWT 0X0
2 OSCA WARRIOR 5 56.5 W 731
3 FOREST JIM 8 56.0 3X6
4 RAW INSTINCT 18 56.0 DW 017
5 CEFFYL 23 55.5 DW 311
6 SLIPSTREAM 21 55.5 W 313
7 THONG AND
PUSHBIKE 17 55.5 DW X15
8 AGGRAVATION 6 55.0 W 582
9 YOUTHFUL 7 55.0 D 331
10 ALPINE EXPRESS 19 54.5 D 232
11 LAURINEL ARGIE 10 54.5 T 801
12 TREASURE
THE KWILA 20 54.0 DWT 631
13 SMART CHARIOT 12 53.5 W 459
14 ST. BASIL 4 53.5 DW 1X1
15 EL TEMPESTAD 11 53.0 W X14
16 WISHART 22 53.0 DWT 227
17 FOXMORE 16 52.5 DC 661
18 OUT BREAK 13 52.5 DW 424
Emergencies
19 FEDERAL AGENT 3 52.0 W 681
20 MIGHT AND GOLD 14 52.0 DT 1X7
21 MISTER OMEGA 15 52.0 DT 564
22 IMPREGNABLE 2 52.0 DW 401
23 AWESOME NIGHT 9 52.0 WTC 208

Paddy, You're spot on. Every year there seem to be 8-10 good chances, which is why most years at least one longer priced horse gains a placing.

My picks in order are -

Laurinel Argie
Ceffyl
St Basil
El Tempestad
Treasure The Kwila


Laurinel Argie - Track specialist (8 runs for 5 wins and two seconds - other run was this race last year when popular in betting and looking promising before falling in a pile up before the turn). Won the prelude here last start (drops 3.5kgs) and barrier 10 is perfect as is a noted backmarker. Hopefully will be swooping home like last start to take the bikkies.

Ceffyl - class horse who won well in Doomben on Saturday. Has won 4 over 1200m and 1 over 1350m. In good form, only becomes second pick due to barrier 23 and query on the track. Will still go close.

St Basil - Has won 9 of 17 starts. Very heavily backed late at last start (Feb 23) when 1-1/4 len win. Distance shouldn't worry and drops 5.5kgs. Again track form only query.

El Tempestad - Won on resuming with 61kgs Jan 2. Wide draw in Dalby Newmarket, went within 3/4 len of the winner (Foxmore). If improves again, will be right in it.

Treasure The Kwila - one of my favourite horses. Placed this race last year. Does race well on the track, however barrier 20 is big negative from the 1350m start. Solid finish last start with len win.


As I said there are numerous other good chances.

One at longer odds could be - Forest Jim.

Other horses you mentioned Paddy -

Golden Eye - Has won on track and at the distance. Good trainer in Flanigan, and has the 1 barrier. On the downside was 13 len off a lot of these at last start (Dalby Newmarket).

Wishart - Another who has won on this track. Went within a neck of smart galloper Baal Yabba Jan 19 (Sun. Coast). Blocked for a run Dalby Newmarket, still within 1-1/4 len of winner. Definitely a chance in this race. Is a backmarker so bad barrier (22) might not have too bad an effect.

Foxmore - Won the Dalby Newmarket, against a lot of these horse, so must be taken seriously. Don't know too much about this horse, but does have a good strike rate. Barrier a big concern.

Might and Gold - this horse has a great record on this track. 4-3/4 len 7th last start, was blocked for a run near 200m. Think second up in this race might be asking a bit too much.

If it had gained a start (doubt there will be 5 scrs) Awesome Night would have had a great show.

Paddy, race 8 - (no.4 - you must have a few on it just for the name). At long odds I thought Ena's Pride might be a chance, with Jim Byrne aboard. Big dangers are the top two (Chassis & Alfonso) and Just Scrumptious.

Race 3 - Really like the chances of 1 Dynamic Dancing. With the three kilo claim and barrier 1 will be mighty hard to topple. Kid Charlemagne and Sweet Lily dangers. Rough chance to Suave Thought.

Race 5 - Ireland Home gets my nod here, with Truedough and Canadian Lord dangers.

Race 6 - Miami Drive I think will be very hard to beat, unfortunately will probably be heavily backed. African Queen has good form on track, query first up though. Illuminar the other danger.

Well I'm off to get some sleep for the big day. Show holiday so the meeting gets 20,000 to 25,000 people.

Good punting all,
Cheers,
Cosmo.

PS - The reason I harp on about form on the Toowoomba track is that there is a sharp uphill run right after the start, and time and time again we see very good Qld horses come here for the first time and not handle it. Not to say the winner can only be one who has form here on the board, but it can be a deiciding factor.



[ This Message was edited by: Cosmo on 2003-03-27 00:24 ]

Thanks for all that information Cosmo, much appreciated :smile:

The most open race I have rated in a long time. I have the whole field (yes 18 horses) within 4 lengths. Should be a good finish.

Top Pick is #9 Youthful 11.00
from in order
1
(11,13)
17
(15,7,2,8,3)
12
(10,16)
(4,5)
(18,6,14)

Really I've got no ************ idea. In fact anything would be no great surprise. It will just be whatever gets a good run and has no bad luck. Unless one in my top couple is about $25+ I wouldn't even consider a bet.

THONG AND PUSHBIKE

Well I have finally settled on my top 4.

Do like Treasure The Kwila - huge odds currently on the NSWTAB. St. Basil next best (also showing nice odds), from Laurinel Argie & El Tempestad.

Ceffyl continued it's great run scoring a win in record time (1:17.08). Ridden perfectly by Jim Byrne, leading all the way and proving too strong. Byrne sensibly took notice of the obvious leaders bias on the track on the day. Ceffyl (15-1) revelled in the soft going, and will be a big show during the winter carnival on wet tracks.

Osca Warrior (12-1) was a good run for second, with first-up fitness telling over the last 100m.

St Basil (10-1) was also a good run for 3rd, and will feature over the next few months.

Wishart was an impressive 4th, did a lot of hard work in the race, and I'll be following it's next few starts with interest.

Unfortunately the jockey (Patillo) on Laurinel Argie did not take heed of leader's bias. Perhaps should have settled a little closer than 2 lengths last, and attempting to fly home. My wallet wishes the trainer had stuck with Seamer for the ride.

An enjoyable day.

Cheers,
Cosmo.