False Favourites & Over Bet horses
 

This is a serious question that might throw up some strange answers. I am looking for some filters to smoke out the false favourites. You know the ones that are overbet.

To me, if a horse or horses are overbet then their is a good possibility that others might be better value providing the information the crowd is going with is not really factual and it is just the mob mentality taking over.

What are some of the reason a false favourite is born. If we can isolate a few of the reasons maybe that might just give us another angle to look at.

Hi Star,

Here's my answer from your 'Looking for Value' thread.

The Schmile

Moments of greatness, TS.

Again.

LG

I keep hearing on other posts about favoriteS,
And ratings etc that are continually "OVERBET".

Can somebody please post these stats so that i may use them?.

To me there are simply 2 ways to win on the punt.
1- Don't do what everyone else does.
2- Do what everybody else does "BUT DO IT BETTER"

For my own i am with nos-2 but that's just me.

Looking forward to the overbet stats for Favorites,
And Ratings so i can improve my strike rate, lower my bank drawdown,
Which will mean bottom line "MORE MONEY".

Any nos of stats will be fine.

Cheers.

Doesn't matter i have found a book i purchased years ago with,
That information what i don't have are the ratings that are overbet.

Cheers.

Will post an overbet Favorite stat..

My data although a couple of years old gave me this

Starting price Fav
s/rate=31%
av/div=$2.8.
L.O.T=-12.3%
Some years are worse some are better i have qouted,
The averages here.

Using the above scenario i will list an overbet stat

tab=1.
out-14842
wins-4913.
s/rate-33%
av-div-$2.54.
L.O.T -16%.
Have this Favorites stat angle,
Covered i need the ratings be they weight or speed,
That are mentioned here and overbet please.

Cheers.

Filter out the favs who are backmarkers in the 1000 - 1100 races.

One can almost say in any race really.On pace runners have a clear advantage as they are less likely to be checked or blocked for a run.
Cheers
darky

Have you ever thought about favs which might be underbet ? Why would you want to do this you may ask. Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.

I propose you look at finding a way of having at least a 40%+ strike rate. This might be through laying or betting. I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.

------------
UB.

That is a very thought provoking post. At the moment I think my system hovers between that and the longer priced one. I was adjusting the rules to increase the price because initially I was getting a lot of short priced ones up but then started to look for more value.

In the last two days I have altered the qualifiers in favor of the middle ground. As a result I have had a few winners namely:


Three Selections for today


Caulfield R1 No 4 Storm Burst : Won paid $3.50

Caulfield R7 No 5 Urban Explorer : Won paid $ 4.80

Caulfield R8 No 4 Bel Sir : Lost was paying about $8.50.


You have given me some more to think about. Chasing value might just be different to chasing big prices.

Thanks.

Star

I will see if I can tighten up the prices

Quick take on Betfair. When you have the Metro meets all the country tracks are posting favs at $4 +. The betters are spoilt for choice and won't come in. There has to be value amongst them.