To the Intelligensia
 

I've read on here on numerous occasions that systems will have a winning trot then fall in a heap then come back to life again. They're cyclical. I would imagine a system based on Average Prizemoney to outperform during the spring.

What changes in racing over the past decade or two could bring down a successful system tested over a period of a decade ?? I cannot think of any changes that would bring a decent system undone.

USing your API filter on your database run a few tests

Split your data into quarters - so if you have 12 years of data test over 3 year periods.

In each of the periods compare the Strike rate vs the average dividend.

You might find that the strike rate stays constant but the average dividend is dropping.

You can tell I'm on holidays with the constant replies.

Barny,

I suggest you read winning without thinking.

It suggests that any system is taking advantage of a variance in the market. Due to everyone researching 100% of the time the advantage will diminish eventually as people find it and add their dollars to the odds reducing them to a non profitable situation.

This is the downfall of 99% of systems.

It's hard to argue against that logic UB, I believe it all the way. But I also believe that the next generation of punters will make the same mistakes as the previous generation of punters.

Hi Barny, you are probably right - only diff being they will make same mistakes but quicker bc betting in the palm of the palm of their hand is akin to a cash register for tote / bookies etc !

LG

The Pari-mutuel Reality: The profit value of anything known, and used by the public, is always working its way towards a near ZERO value point.

Does it then follow that...

1. All knowledge readily available to the general public is sought out by them
2. The information, when accessed is used without intepretation or manipulation
3. Everyone is researching 100% of the time

I think not.

LG

As the odds are still the best indication of a horses chnces of winning then you have to be extremely clever/lucky to beat the market consistently. This doesn't mean every race has the odds exactly right, in fact it could be a little or a lot wrong, but overall for every odd overvalued in one race by 10% there is another race where the odds are undervalued by 10%.

Our task as punters is to determine which is overvalued and which is undervalued. But its not as easy as you think it woiuld be.

Interesting points here UB - the brain box is clicking over here (albeit slowly!)

What if one were able to predict the top 5 chances for a given race more often than the market itself. Would the remaining runners be overvalued as a group, and one or more of the top 5 selected undervalued?

LG

I agree LG. Not everyone is using or seeking the same information. It's just that of the thousands determining the outcome of a race it only takes a few to cross-pollinate similar segments of knowledge to frame a market to it's correct chance. It is extremely accurate consistently and yet it is done with the higher weight of ill-informed entertainment money. That old 80:20 chestnut again.
You're last point is a ripper... Most punters have stopped researching because they are simply not as interested in it as us! :)