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-   -   Daily Doubles using the Neurals (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25042)

Try Try Again 16th September 2012 09:59 AM

Daily Doubles using the Neurals
 
I have been looking at using the Neurals for Daily Doubles in A,B,M & S over the past 5 Saturdays. Although results have not been overwhelming they are showing a small profit of 8.7% thanks mainly to the Sydney DD yesterday paying $66.60 on the Vic TAB (which I use for recording the dividends). Currently, Melb (-$99.20) & Bris (-$78.00) are losing whereas Syd (+$174.00) & Adel (+$45.90) are in the black. All States have had collects.

Basis of selection is using the top 3 in the Neurals in each leg where all preference scales are set on 3 except WET which is 0 for Good, 1 for Dead, 2 for Slow and 3 for Heavy.

To calculate the units on each double the Neural odds of each horse are multiplied together and divided into 50 (I have used $50 as the amount I wanted to collect) and rounded up to give a whole number.

E.g. $4 x $6 = $24
Divided into $50 = $2.08
Rounded up = $3 unit on this double

I have picked out the 4 meetings in VIC and NSW today to see how this approach would work.

SEYMOUR (Dead) - Outlay $22
15&6 - $4........15&2 - $3.......15&11 - $3
2&6 - $2..........2&2 - $2.........2&11 - $2
4&6 - $2..........4&2 - $2.........4&11 - $2

CASTERTON (Slow) - Outlay $28
3&3 - $5..........3&2 - $4..........3&6 - $3
2&3 - $4..........2&2 - $3..........2&6 - $2
6&3 - $3..........6&2 - $2..........6&6 - $2

DUBBO (Good) - Outlay $25
4&3 - $4..........4&4 - $4..........4&2 - $3
1&3 - $3..........1&4 - $3..........1&2 - $2
2&3 - $2..........2&4 - $2..........2&2 - $2

GUNDAGAI (Good) - Outlay $23
5&4 - $3..........5&2 - $3..........5&6 - $2
9&4 - $3..........9&2 - $3..........9&6 - $2
6&4 - $3..........6&2 - $2..........6&6 - $2

Total Outlay for today is $98

Try Try Again 16th September 2012 04:34 PM

Today was a successful day with both Seymour ($77.90) and Dubbo ($9.10) saluting

With our multiple units on each double the final results were:-

Seymour
Outlay $22
Collect 2 x $77.90 = $155.80
Profit $133.80

Casterton
Outlay $28
Collect $nil
Loss $28

Dubbo
Outlay $25
Collect 4 x $9.10 = $36.40
Profit $11.40

Gundagai
Outlay $23
Collect $nil
Loss $23

OVERALL
Outlay $98
Collect $192.20
Profit $94.20

I also had a look at my results for the past 5 Saturdays and I noticed that not betting on Slow or Heavy tracks would eliminate 3 losing meetings and would have increased the POT% to 32.6%.

It would have also eliminated today's Casterton meeting which failed to get either leg of the double and would have saved an outlay of $28.

Results are based on very few meetings so more testing needs to be collected.

garyf 16th September 2012 06:04 PM

Without any shadow of a doubt if i turned to exotic betting,
Daily Doubles is by far my preferred and only option.

I am a multiple win bettor have been for years i firmly,
Believe if your multiple win betting is profitable,
Then will your exotics be as well.

Quadrellas i couldn't cope with the long run of outs,
That's me personally, while doubles offer smaller returns,
They are easier to get that's what i would concentrate on,
If i ever went into that form of betting.

Good luck with it T.T.A.
Will be watching how it goes,
Guess it's up to the neurals now.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Try Try Again 17th September 2012 09:13 AM

Thanks Garyf.

Todays Daily Doubles are:-

BAIRNSDALE (Dead) - Outlay $24
7&10 - $4..........7&4 - $3..........7&1 - $3
8&10 - $3..........8&4 - $3..........8&1 - $2
5&10 - $2..........5&4 - $2..........5&1 - $2

MUSWELLBROOK (Dead) - Outlay $27
2&5 - $4............2&3 - $3..........2&1 - $3
1&5 - $4............1&3 - $3..........1&1 - $3
5&5 - $3............5&3 - $2..........5&1 - $2

NOWRA (Dead) - Outlay $25
4&1 - $5............4&4 - $4..........4&11 - $4
6&1 - $2............6&4 - $2..........6&11 - $2
5&1 - $2............5&4 - $2..........5&11 - $2

Total Outlay for today is $76

Try Try Again 17th September 2012 04:39 PM

No luck today. As we are only considering meetings on Dead or Good tracks.

Total Outlay $147
Total Collect $192.20
Total Profit $55.20

Maybe we will have better luck tomorrow.

Lord Greystoke 17th September 2012 07:19 PM

I think you might be onto something valuable here T2,
albeit some dull results here n there...

Please persevere?

LG

Try Try Again 18th September 2012 08:38 AM

Before we give today's Daily Doubles I need to correct where we stand as my maths were all up the creek!

Total Outlay $146
Total Collect $192.20
Total Profit $46.20

KILMORE (Dead) - Outlay $27
7&8 - $6...........7&2 - $3............7&3 - $3
5&8 - $4...........5&2 - $2............5&3 - $2
1&8 - $3...........1&2 - $2............1&3 - $2

TAREE (Dead) - Outlay $27
6&1 - $4...........6&5 - $3............6&8 - $3
4&1 - $4...........4&5 - $3............4&8 - $2
3&1 - $4...........3&5 - $2............3&8 - $2

Total Outlay for today is $54

Vortech 18th September 2012 09:20 AM

Sorry TTA - What race numbers are the daily doubles.
They might be different to what is available on Unitab up here in QLD

Try Try Again 18th September 2012 10:02 AM

Hi Vortech,

In Victab the DD are usually 3rd last and last race of the day e.g. races 6&8

Try Try Again 18th September 2012 05:19 PM

Again no luck today with both meetings in Vic and NSW getting the first leg in but not even close in the 2nd leg in either venue. Always tomorrow!

Total Outlay $200.00
Total Collect $192.20
Total Loss $7.80

Oh what a fool I have been!

I just checked the only other meeting being run today - Townsville and the DD was selected with both 2nd picks. The DD paid $208.80 and we would have had $2 on it! A total outlay of $23 would have netted $417.60!

Looks like I need to expand the DD to all meetings in SA,Vic, NSW & Qld.


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