Bets
 

On Friday Lord Greystoke asked me on the Laying Outsiders thread about betting the selections by taking the reverse Lay position, which I did for the later races that day.

However I did not list the results...here they are:

From Win betting there were 42 selections for a return of $41.10 (Unitab divvies) which is a loss of $0.90. I did not look at the earlier races so I don't know if the day was profitable. From the above 42 selections I also checked Betfair S.P. results (if no S.P. results shown I took the final price) and deducted 6.5% from the divvies whether or not the race was profitable, so the result shown below is even better had I only applied the commission to the profitable races.

The return was $49.48 which I believe is a POT of about 18%.

So I applied the same rules to yesterday's racing.

The rules are simple:
1) A minimum of 10 runners in the race,
2) All runners to have a minimum of 3 career starts.
3) Bet only the selections that are under $20 in my market.

There were 145 selections for a Unitab return of 151.80 which is a POT of about 4%.

Applying the same Betfair disadvantaged calculation as stated above, the return was $177.96 which is a profit of $32.96 which equates to a 22% POT.

As a matter of interest, Friday also showed a profit for boxed quinellas and trifectas, and a small loss for First Fours. However I did not check yesterday's results.

Hopefully I will be able to list today's selections.

Today's selections - no Maidens.

Randwick
4/1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10
7/1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13

Hobart
5/1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
6/3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11
7/1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

Ballarat
6/1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 12, 13, 16
8/2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10

Gawler
7/1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
8/1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 15, 16

Belmont
8/3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11

Swan Hill
4/1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12
7/1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,10

Hobart
5/1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
6/3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11
7/1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

michaelg.
You either do a helluva lot more research than most members , or you reveal your research a helluva lot more , or both.

Would you belive yourself to have -

1. Definately made a Profit in the last 6 months or so of Punting.
2. Probably came about squarish.
3. Definitely made a Loss.

Hi, Moeee.

Since the start of the year I've made a healthy profit from laying horses. I've also just started laying o'seas football from fanatic football countries for a minimum of $5 because I suspect many fans bet with their hearts and not their heads which might distort the market. So far so good with international and club games even though it's still in the testing stage..

However, I'm not too sure about betting horses. I'm looking at this current system because it's based on the reverse of my Laying system which has been doing quite well of only one accident of the 113 selections from 45 races.

Do you attribute this Profit to chopping and changing and modifying your approach , by what seems a weekly activity.
Or do you have a fairly hard and fast method that provides most , if not all , of those Profits?

From both methods.

I did quite well by simply looking at outsiders and forming an opinion, such as barrier draw, last couple of starts, no resumers from a spell, jockey and also checking them mainly on Unitab's ratings - it all boiled down to opinion. I must admit there have been some close calls. The size of some of my bets have been quite large as the more I won the larger the bets became, until I got greedy and overconfident when one of my selections ($10,000 liabilty S.P.) was just beaten in a photo-finish where even the race-caller was unable to separate both runners prior to the result being declared. That made me realize my recklessness/stupidity and over the next few days I transferred $10,000 of my winnings to my bank account.

Also my hard and fast rules have done quite well even though the size of the bets have been fairly modest, but that might soon change.

Thank you michaelG.