weight rank strike rate
 

I have strike rates for ranked api, win% and place% (mainly thanks to UB) but I would appreciate any help on getting the strike rates for ranked allocated weight.

Dont know where this came from
 

PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION OF RUNNERS BY PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION OF WINNERS

WT %OF RUNS % OF WINS

50.5 - 51.5 1.4 0.7

52 - 53 3 4.8 21.3

53.5 - 54.5 27.2 27.3

55 - 56 21.7 27.9

56.5 - 57.5 10.2 15.5

58 - 59 2.7 4.8

59.5 - 60.5 0.4 0.7

>= 61 1.5 1.7

So based on these figures horses weighted 53.5kg win less races than expected (Negative)
Horses weighted 53.5kg to 54.5kg win races as expected(Equal)
Horses weighted greater than 54.5 kg win more races than expected (Positive)

Am I correct in saying this?

Hope this helps
 

In the end all horses run to price this is why you cant back all horses in any price bracket and win, yes the bookies are that good. So just to stay on this subject these results were used by me to set an upper weight limit for place betting so consistency does matter but price in the end is the most important. So all this says is horses above = to 55 may be more consistent this is backed up by higher tab no winning more races.

So I think what you need is weights ranked by price to better gauge if there is any price advantage. It depends on your approach as I am sure that there are some great form horses in the lower weights that are over looked by the public there for over priced.

But from a systems point of view tab no 7 and above, improves most things I have done.

This would be more a class rule. By the way I set my max weight rule at 59.5 kg.

By this, do you mean Tab 1-7 and higher odds in this bracket for better 'value' given the greater statistical chance of making the frame = 1-2-3?

LG

It does or it does not ??
 

It does seem to give a greater edge to filling the frame and because it does improve the figures on a rather consistence basis I think it must improve the odds ,as my selections below this are break even to bad this is why a great amount of selections is needed. But this is properly because the horse above no 8 are more than often in a class more suited to them don’t underestimate the handicapper as they work to a set of rules which do a lot of the system work for you. I have never done a long shot 10-1 and over on chances above no 8 or below 7 the loss on turn over may give you a starting point or you may use weight under or over and concentrate on the smallest loss on t/o area. There is also a great chance for profit in midweek meeting as some horses are under bet as most punters concentrate on the shorter prices with less in the price pools this can cause consistent over lays on long shots.

Interesting data ianian showing the distribution of winning chances versus weight.

I am more interested in the ranked weight strike rates similar to api rank, win rank etc strike rates. I am not trying to use this factor to find a price advantage but rather as part of my analysis. At present I use TAB number strike rates but this is only similar to ranked weight and not the same. It is the best I can do until I collect more data myself or until some kind person with a good database helps out.