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-   -   Test A Lay Method (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25610)

michaelg 25th November 2012 12:23 PM

Test A Lay Method
 
I've looked on and off at a Lay method but had for some unknown reason forgotten it until yesterday. I'm under the impression it had been successful.

So I checked Friday's and yesterday's results and was pleasantly surprised.

The rules are simple:

1) Neural default market.
2) Look at the top half of the Neural market and identify the outright worst rated in the CP category.

Filters:
1) Minimum of 9 runners.
2) Must not have won at last start or is resuming from a spell.
3) If it has 0 points it's a no-bet race.

On Friday there were 30 selections and yesterday 61 for no accidents. Almost half started at single prices on Unitab so the profit would have been quite acceptable. I'll list today's selections and lay them for $30 on S.P....and hope.

Hobart
2/6
6/9

Ballarat
2/7
8/8
10/17

Bunbury
3/8
4/6
5/7
7/6
8/3

Kilmore
2/1
6/7

Sun Coast
3/14
6/3
7/6

Clare
4/3
5/4
6/4
7/10

Goulburn
2/9
3/8

Grafton
1/3
2/15
3/14
4/3
7/16

Alice Springs
2/4

Lord Greystoke 25th November 2012 01:23 PM

Interesting method, michaelg..
Looks worthy of a double-ended heat map test.

Cheers LG

michaelg 25th November 2012 04:32 PM

Thanks for the encouragement, L.G.

A current update - there's been 14 races so far for 14 smiles producing a profit of $28.69.

michaelg 25th November 2012 08:36 PM

Not a bad day. There were 27 smiles from the 27 selections for a profit of $43.82.

The Ocho 25th November 2012 09:59 PM

Well done michaelg. And good returns to boot!

The Ocho 25th November 2012 10:20 PM

Have you been looking at the place for these Michaelg?

I've just had a look at today's picks and 4 came a place out of 27 with the worse place paying 4.3 (I didn't check if there were any scratchings) with a profit of +13.32 for a $1 level lay bet minus commission. That's pretty good.

I'm not sure if that would be better than the win amount but it sounds pretty good.

michaelg 26th November 2012 06:42 AM

The Ocho,

unfortunately there is no Place facility on S.P otherwise I'd lay them each-way. However there is generally on the better meetings on Wed and Sat, and I might check it out when available.

michaelg 26th November 2012 11:23 AM

Today's selections:

Scone
3/10
7/6

Hamilton
3/7
4/9
5/8
6/8
7/13

michaelg 26th November 2012 05:05 PM

There were 7 smiles from the 7 selections for a profit of $6.40.

Lord Greystoke 26th November 2012 06:02 PM

STILL going strong!

Can you remind me how you are staking these michaelg?


LG


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