Favourites and track conditions
 

I wonder if someone could check a large sample of the following
Metro and non metro ( preferably separate )
Favourite or equal fav
Has started in today's track conditions
Has not won in today's conditions

Unfortunately I can't answer this question for you, but what I can tell you is that when i accumulated some data this year back to April, on the racings I applied my ratings almost all winners (not necessarily favourites, just the winner of each race) had won in the conditions.

It was extremely rare that the winner of the race had either a) not ran in the conditions or b) not won in the conditions.

Just some food for thought, not sure if that helps what your after or not. Sorry that I cant provide any figures but i'm sure someone here with a database can help you out.

Is this the start of a system?

* Must have won (or ran) in the conditions.

Would there be too many selections per race?

What about backing them if they start between $4 and $30?

What about backing them a la darkydogs method of getting +$1 over the amount of selections (5 selections - must be $6+, etc)?

I do like simplicity The Ocho, but if the conditions are good, and one of the rules is must have "run" in the conditions, then we're going to have a heck of a lot of selections per race ?? nes pas ?? .... probs the whole field actually !!

I have kept a copy of your graphs which got me wondering about favourites from a laying perspective. Thanks

Your welcome, just remember those charts were based on the stats of the winner, not the stats of the favorites. I hope they are of some use to you :)

Hahaha. I just looked at Race 1 at Mackay today where all 6 horses had won on a good track. There were 2 scratchings. The winner was the one with the worst percentage :rolleyes: I note that the winner did pay more than $7 which is what darkydog2002 would have required of paying $5 with the 4 picks.

Ocho, thats pretty much what my stats showed, didn't really matter if a horse had won once or 10 times on the conditions, but if it hadn't run in the conditions or hadn't won in them, they rarely won.

Also note a lot of winners were either running at the same distance as last race or stepping up by between 0 and 400 metres.

Wonder what a simple test of the following 5 filters would yield:

Days Last Start 7-21
Last Start Distance Change 0 to +400
Won in conditions >=1
Odds between $4 - $30
Number of starts between 8 and 30

Compliments to Barny and the Lordship for some of those filters with a twist of my own, anyone interested in running it for all of us?

Anyone been able to test the above yet? Cos i'm have some good success over the last few days using if a horse has won or not in the conditions as a filter (both the back and lay side).

May be too early to tell with any significance but is looking promising.