My NRL Tipping
 

I've been playing around with some figures on NRL and came up with a system using the stats for loonger term and shorter term periods. I then use these to come up with a high/low chance rate for each team.

Although the Charity sheild is not really played the same way I am going to give it a go.

South Sydney : $2.01 - $2.05
St George : $1.96 - $1.98

I also want to take a safe bet and a risky bet. So two banks.

Risky Bet : St George -3.5 = $3.25
Safe Bet : St George +12.5 = $1.41

Im not worried if this is completely wrong for tonights game but will be interested to see how it goes

UB, do you have any stats with line betting in the NRL? I found a site for AFL with results for last year an 2011 and will see if I can find any patterns.

What I'd like to know is:
1/ do faves in the h2h have an advantage at the line
2/ do home teams have an advantage

I know of a bookie that offers $2 lines, 100% market, and I want to try it out this year.

Raven,

I do not have the lines. But if your really interested !!!! they are available at

oddsportal.com

Example:

http://www.oddsportal.com/rugby-lea...m-1479106/#ah;2

If you look at the Asian Handicap its the line is the one which has the hightest number of bookmakers against it. In the above link it was 1.5 (10 bookmakers).

Round 1 selections.

This is just system I am testing. It might have no legs.

Roosters vs Rabbitohs -- Rabbitohs should win. No Bet at current Odds.
Broncos vs Manly -- Slight edge to Brisbane at home. No bet at current odds.
Eels vs Warriors -- Eels should go well at home. Eels bet at $1.72
Canterbury vs North Qld -- Cowboys slight edge. Cowboys bet at $2.09
Penrith vs Canberra --- Canberra slight edge. Canberra at $2.00
Melb vs St George --- Not sure on this. Odds for St George are good but I am staying out of it. No Bet.
Cronulla vs Gold Coast -- Cronulla slight edge at home. No Bet at current odds.
Newcastle vs Wests -- Too close to call. Tigers bet at $2.60 with value in the odds.

Bets:
Confident Value Bets:
Eels $1.72
Cowboys $2.09
Canberra $2.00

Outsider Value Bets:
Tigers bet $2.60

Total to date : 0/1
Profit : -1 unit