Neurals CP Is it the best indicator?
 

I read recently in one of the many good threads on this website that using only CP (Career Performance) in the Neurals is a very good indicator to winning chances.

I have looked at this over 4 of the past 5 days (I missed Monday due to other committments).

Results are quite interesting.

Saturday
Caulfield 10 bets $12.50 collect +$2.50
WFarm 13 bets $11.80 collect -$2.20
EFarm 10 bets $19.00 collect +$9.00
Morph 12 bets $15.50 collect +$3.50

Sunday
Colac 8 bets $16.90 collect +$8.90
Kilmore 9 bets $7.20 collect -$1.80
Balaclava 10 bets $1.60 collect -$8.40
Bathurst 10 bets $5.40 collect -$4.60
SunCoast 11 bets $23.10 collect +$12.10

Tuesday
Werribee 10 bets $7.40 collect -$2.60
Townsville 7 bets $9.10 collect +$2.10

Wednesday
Sandown 11 bets $14.10 collect +$3.10
Canterbury 7 bets $15.20 collect +$8.20
Port Lincoln 8 bets $9.90 collect +$1.90

Overall
136 bets $168.70 collect +$32.70

A very small test but interseting results I think. There 31 winners in this period with shortest price $1.60 and largest priced $17.00.

In this period there was also a placegetter that paid $21.00 for 2nd ($101 SP Brayroan - WF race 5#2)

Does anyone else have any longer term details?

I have them going back quite a while. I can do any period but it takes a while so I just did Jan for you.

Jan 2013 Results:

1153 selections for 247 winners.
It returned 971 on the tatts odds. Thats a return of 84.2%.

Personally I think they are great for laying rather then betting if you know what your looking for.

Thanks Useless Bettor

If you are not at least getting the best of the 3 totes midweek and best of TF and the 3 totes on city meetings you are always going to push the old preverbial uphill. Don't you agree? This does not even take into account Betfair which unfortunately I have not approached as yet.

This is why testing "systems" using only one tote doesn't give all the answers.

That is very true. It means you can definitely improve upon the results. The results of 84% though are about average for any top 2 or 3 selection. Favs return arond 87% on one tote and it starts dropping from there.

Testing on one tote usually gives you a "worst case" result which is something you should use when deciding to design a backing system.

For interest though if you back the selections that have a CP >= 75 who are the top CP seleciton you will go very well. Approx 20-30 bets per month and a good profit can be achieved.

CP >= 75 this month has returned 25.90 from 25 selecitons on tatts odds only. Now using top fluc you would get at least a few more dollars out of this.

Oops the above is wrong ... that is Feb 2012 figures.

Feb 2013 = 21 selecitons for 29.6 return on tatts figures.

CP SETTING
 

Hi uselessbettor i am wondering what setting you are using to arrive at the 75 as in 1 to 5 for the CP if you can thanks.

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