Make Hay while the market sleeps in!
 

I have had some really good success laying the first two or three races in New Zealand of late. Just log on to NZ TAB and watch their market compared to Betfair. The Australian market is very slow to react to the pricing in NZ, especially through the week. For instance a horse will show up as favourite on the BF site with only $500 in the pool, but over in NZ it might be 5th Fav with $7,000 in the pool. So Lay the so called Aus Fav early for a nice profit!
Cheers RP

I can well agree with that.
On the Win side I have never been able to profit from NZ races.

I've sensed too that there are better days than others, when the tipsters and ratings, predict more winners.
Monday's I seem to really struggle to show a profit Laying, compared to say a Saturday. It's probably a direct relationship to prizemoney offered and amount of competition in Monday races when the better horses race on the weekends.
I'm sure someone like Garyf or U B have stats that prove or disprove this theory. Interested to hear any feedback.
Cheers RP

Your observation is something I will seriously look at.

Cheers.

You know what I mean Darky? As a percentage of races run on a particular day, do favourites win a greater % of races on a Monday compared to a Tuesday or Wednesday....etc etc????
Interesting study.
Cheers RP

Dont really know and its something I,d like to know as In I bet the Fav in the first 4 races of the day @ a certain Price.
On the 2 Dead tracks Mildura and Nowra today 50 %.
Thats why your idea interests me so much (detecting false Favs.)
i.e if say their rated $7 in NZ and here $3.25 one would have to query it.

Cheers.

Hi RCP

You are definitely looking in the right places.

As an example in poor quality races there is usually less punter focus so there is some value to be found. From my data reference I have race types categorized into POOR, AVERAGE & GOOD and the win dividends available appear to follow the focus.

POOR... $5.68 avg win dividend (least focus)
AVERAGE... $5.32
GOOD... $5.12 (most focus)
Best of 3 totes.

An extra 10% could be found whilst the market is sleeping which may take a marginal system into profit. You have found another sleeper on the LAY side. Good luck with your method.

Well I'm doing the same as you looking for NZ horses tipped or rated to win by AUS websites or papers, but the kiwi punters don't agree, and they should know!! Perfect Lay or Trading opportunity. The Aussies are too busy studying the formguides for the first in AUS.
There are other universal Lay opportunities that I'm exploring. One, that I'm particularly interested in, is where you get a horse selected by at least 3 different rating systems to win. It starts favourite but it's price is above certain odds and it loses (false favourite). There are two or three of these each day.
Cheers RP

Riconpaul, just a thought, if that's true then there may be plenty of laying opportunities the other way round, i.e. where the NZ opinion on Aus racing is flawed???

Party, you mean like, you see a Fav in AUS paying $3.60 fixed price but in NZ it's paying $4.20 fixed Price and then put a bet on in NZ? Could be merit in this method, just have to open an account in NZ.
Following on from my false favourites discussion:
Find a horse selected to win by 3 different methods i.e. SKY 100, SKY No.1 Tip, SKY Best Overall and it starts Fav. If it's price is >=$3.00 at the start, Lay it.
Yesterday there were 3 examples: Grafton R7/ No. 2; Nowra R6/ No. 3; Pukekura R6/ No. 8. They all Lost.
Notice I'm not using neurals anymore? After Saturday, where they never even updated their selections for scratchings, that was the last straw. No more noorals!!
Have a great day, RP