Open Class races
 

There has been some interesting results following Open Class races in Melbourne on Saturdays only.

The only other rule is the qualifying horses must be between $2 and $4 inclusive in the morning paper (I use the Herald Sun)

These figures are from 5/08/2006 to 25/05/2013. (nearly 7 years)

Bets 682
Wins 222
Win S/R 32.6%
Win Bank +83.10 units
Win POT% 12.2%
Places 439
Place S/R 64.4%
Place Bank +20.74 units
Place POT% 3.0%

The longest losing run was 12 and the longest winning run was 6.

With some logic based elimination rules the following is achievable

Bets 186
Wins 85
Win S/R 85%
Win Bank +89.70 units
Win POT% 48.2%
Places 132
Place S/R 71.0%
Place Bank +26.10 units
Place POT% 14.0%

The longest losing run was 9 and the longest winning run was 5.

I put this up to show that if you concentrate on niche areas in the punting market profits are achievable over many years.

can you provide year by year stats.

Its no good if all the profit was in the first 2-3 years and its gone nowhere since.

Sure can UselessBettor!

First I have to make some changes to my previous figures (Gee I love the Countif option on Excel!)

ALL Bets
Bets 682
Wins 224
Win S/R 32.8%
Win Bank +83.10 units
Win POT% 12.2%
Places 445
Place S/R 65.2%
Place Bank +20.74 units
Place POT% 3.0%

Year By Year

2006...26 bets...13 wins...50.0%S/R...Win bank +16.9 units...POT% 65.0%
2007...94 bets...28 wins...29.8%S/R...Win Bank +1.95 units...POT% 2.1%
2008...122 bets..42 wins...34.4%S/R...Win Bank +38.4 units...POT% 31.5%
2009...110 bets..33 wins...30.0%S/R...Win Bank +2.15 units...POT% 2.0%
2010...85 bets...28 wins...32.9%S/R...Win Bank +11.15 units..POT% 13.1%
2011...90 bets...33 wins...36.7%S/R...Win Bank +13.7 units...POT% 15.5%
2012...103 bets..29 wins...28.2%S/R...Win Bank -5.1 units....LOT% 5.0%
2013...52 bets...18 wins...34.6%S/R...Win Bank +3.95 units...POT% 7.6%

I will put up the results for the selections after the rules I apply later.

MELB
 

I once did a test of prepost favs in melb over 5 years and they broke even at sp this was all sat races - i dont know why but the form works best in melb

Interesting stuff T2. Still looks 'pukka' over the last 5 years which takes out 2006, 2008, them being the 2 highest POT years, and includes the LOT last year

=> 6.64% POT 2009-13 if my wonky maths is correct.

Cheers LG

It should be a good system in a set of systems for a punter.

But after 5 months this year it still hasn't recovered last years losses so you wouldn't want to be relying on this too much as your main system.

An update of results with elimination rules

Bets 186
Wins 85
Win S/R 85%
Win Bank +89.70 units
Win POT% 48.2%
Places 132
Place S/R 71.0%
Place Bank +26.10 units
Place POT% 14.0%

Year By Year

2006...12 bets....9 wins..100.0%S/R...Win bank +16.7 units...POT% 139.2%
2007...26 bets....9 wins....34.6%S/R...Win Bank +2.5 units...POT% 9.6%
2008...32 bets...15 wins...46.9%S/R...Win Bank +19.35 units...POT% 60.5%
2009...31 bets...13 wins...41.9%S/R...Win Bank +12.0 units...POT% 38.7%
2010...85 bets...28 wins...32.9%S/R...Win Bank +11.15 units..POT% 13.1%
2011...90 bets...33 wins...36.7%S/R...Win Bank +13.7 units...POT% 15.5%
2012...103 bets..29 wins...28.2%S/R...Win Bank -5.1 units....LOT% 5.0%
2013...52 bets...18 wins...34.6%S/R...Win Bank +3.95 units...POT% 7.6%

Only allowed one edit so of course I inadvertently hit send.

Proper results are:-

Elimination Year By Year

2006...12 bets....9 wins..100.0%S/R...Win bank +16.7 units...POT% 139.2%
2007...26 bets....9 wins....34.6%S/R...Win Bank +2.5 units...POT% 9.6%
2008...32 bets...15 wins...46.9%S/R...Win Bank +19.35 units...POT% 60.5%
2009...31 bets...13 wins...41.9%S/R...Win Bank +12.0 units...POT% 38.7%
2010...22 bets...11 wins...50.0%S/R...Win Bank +14.35 units..POT% 65.2%
2011...28 bets...15 wins...53.6%S/R...Win Bank +19.6 units...POT% 70.0%
2012...26 bets...10 wins...38.5%S/R...Win Bank +4.6 units....POT% 17.7%
2013....9 bets.....3 wins...33.3%S/R...Win Bank +0.6 units....POT% 6.7%

I certainly would not bet all contenders but do bet qualifiers after my elimination rules. It is a tidy system which has given nearly 7 years of profit, albeit some years have just squeezed out a profit. It is certainly a system to have in your portfolio. What will happen to 2013 - who knows?

I just noted the win S/R should read 45.7% not 85% as I listed after elimination rules had been applied.

TTA, some would say the sample size isn't anywhere near enough. I'm in the corner that disagrees that sample size needs to be "x" amount or else it's useless. Your systems results are proof enough (that small samples over time)and are very encouraging to the unwashed (incl myself) who do have good systems but very few bets per year.

Bhagwan who posted many different methods on here did mention that the best systems "have 3 to 5 bets per month". Also there was a good post about how aqccurate small samples can be and how they use small samples for political polling.

Very well done Try Try Again, brill in fact. An elephant stamp from Barny !!!!