Winning on the Punt
 

As part of your education you're going to develop a stable of 10 horses and follow their every move for the next year. This stable of horses will include a GH1 horse, preferably on a cups campaign, can be from o'seas if you wish, a GR1 and GR2 / GR3 horse from Gai Waterhouse Stable, a couple of decent handicappers (find the ratings from a well known publication which will give you a decent list to choose from), one has to be lightly raced and on the up, an unraced well bred 2y/o, a couple of horses part owned by the trainer, a maiden, a decent country horse. Mix up the sex, we want at least two geldings in this lot but not the "maiden". Mix up the trainers, don't go for the bigger well known trainers, we want one or two bush trainers and maybe one or two from Perth and Adelaide.

Follow EVERY move of these horses, ring the stables, go to the trackwork and trials where possible, go to the races, talk to anyone who seems to be involved with the horse. Investigate why they're entered for a particular race, find out their habits, their weaknesses their strengths, the motives of the trainer, the jockeys previous experience with the horse, the market moves, how the horse ran in the race, did it have bad luck, was it pushed wide, did you get the best price on course or could you have done better with Betfair, the weight the horse carried and does it matter, the barrier, the track and conditions, trackwork, keep meticulous records of everything.

Above all else try to get some inside information, I'm sure you'll be able to on some if you dig hard enough and stick with it long enough. This is crucial. When / If the horse wins was it well backed, did it look like it had a chance on "form", did the stable back it, was it easy in the market, why did it win.

It's not a lot of work really 10 horses with an average of 5 or 6 starts each is only 50 or 60 races each year. You decide if you want to replace a horse at anytime but keep records of why you did and try to keep the mix of horses / trainers as varied as possible.

It's crucial that you attend some trackwork / trials and talk to those involved with the horse. Dig for as much information as possible, I cannot stress this highly enough.

You must have some skin in the game so you must back your horses when you decide you want to, and this could be at every start, it's up to you. The size of the bet when you think the horse is going to win should make you feel uncomfortable, as this signifies you have considerable skin in the game and are prepared to back your judgement. The reason for this is that there's a lot of people who wish to make a living from this game, and those that do, well they back their judgement, not unlike any other business owner. Please note, this education suits only those who wish to win by backing winners, which is the historical nature of gambling on horses.

Boot leather or computers ????? ;)

Makes a lot of sense, even though this is pretty extream for the average punter a stables is a good idea.

In the past i have used a stable of runners and still think this one of the best ways to go, only issue i found was getting the right runners and to have the patients and funds to follow them.

Tests in the past has shown most Saturday winners can be followed for profit, pick a few runners and look at there total odds for wins.

nothing wrong with following the right maidens for their first win...some good odds too

I would say both, if one is within a stone's throw of a racecourse or a short dash down the back streets. Boot up your tablet and break out your running boots, Gentlemen.

Cheers LG

I,m with you CosMos.

I outlined many factors that influence the outcome of a race and the return one gets. Can one get a substantial enough advantage over your fellow punters by becoming an e-x-p-e-r-t in a couple of factors, eg; trackwork and trials and tempo ..... and ultimately win your 10% to 15% on a consistent basis. I think the "Follow the Top 10 Sires" thread should have opened a few eyes. Look solely at form and you're competing with almost everyone.

I know of a pro punter in Sydney who attends trackwork and the stables every morning and has been winning for the last twenty five years.
He is not a big name, he goes about his business as quietly as possible and never discusses "tips".

Even with me :(

Sometimes we have a general chat and he can't get his head around many of the concepts I discuss, but he knows his stuff and wins every single month.

There are so many ways to skin a cat...poor cat.

A question guys.

If we accept that winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing and we are following a stable of Saturday winners do we delete them from our list as soon as they win or do we keep them on our list assuming they are expected to win again.

Your thoughts?

For me i would judge the merit of the run,
And or the win, then decide after that.

Cheers.
G.F.

Good points garyf.

It would be difficult to back up on Spacecraft (took about 2 years to win) on Saturday albeit a very easy win given he was allowed to get away with "murder" out in front.