2kg swing in the weights
 

Smart Gambler Handicap 1200 3yo and up bm85 Rosehill Gardens Track good

(1)Horse A form 341 - Career starts 10 -won 4 placed 2- (Barrier 7 field 11) 58 kg N Rawiller

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(5)Horse B form 222- Career starts 13- won 3 placed 4- (Barrier 6 field 11) 56 kg C Reith

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Horse A --Beaten 1.5 lenghs when 4th at Randwick in 1000m bm85 and led and held on well to beat Horse B by one length over 1200 bm85 here 2 weeks ago from barrier 1. 56kg price 4/1 equal 2nd favourite (Tk good)

Horse B---Finished half a length behind at Randwick over 1200 metres bm85 and then looked a tad unlucky when 2nd again to Horse A here 2weeks ago when beaten by one length from barrier 2. Meets Horse A 2kg better in the weights. 56kg price 5/2 favorite

Now I won't ask who will win the race as we don't know the other horses in the race. The question is who should finish ahead of the other knowing form and weight etc.

This scenario has confronted me on hundreds of occasions over 20 years and surprisingly for me it has worked out a about 50/50. As a matter of fact you would be miles in front if you had backed the horse who had won the last start and carries the extra weight because often, as in the above example you can back it each way....and it wins just as often!

One of the many reasons punting is a hard game!!

On so many occasions Winners keep winning and Losers can please themselves!