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-   -   Spltting rules anyone? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27109)

partypooper 4th September 2013 10:32 AM

Spltting rules anyone?
 
Does anyone have any thoughts on this subject, I have a plan that constantly throws 2 runners in a race, the race types can be any, I end up with about 25% winners, but backing em all, end up just short of even. I've had several attempts to try and split the selections so there is always only 1 bet per race, I've tried splitting based on price, position in the pre-post market, rating, Draw, Last start.
So far haven't managed to change that small loss into a profit,

any ideas?

Lord Greystoke 4th September 2013 10:38 AM

TAB No.
Jockey / Trainer
Age - 4/5 = Y/N


???

LG

PS working on 'refining' PPM if you are interested e.g. not so many bets!

LORDGREYSTOKE3RD
GMAIL
COM

stugots 4th September 2013 10:52 AM

Back the one which will provide the most value

evajb001 4th September 2013 10:58 AM

Without knowing how your filtering already makes it a little difficult but obviously you don't want to give away the rules. To decide between the two selections maybe use a filter thats not readily available or considered by the public. i.e. don't use a filter thats on all TAB screens around the country that everyone takes into considering (placed last start, top barrier etc etc).

Maybe go with the horse that improved the most from Turn to finish last start (i.e. was 8th at turn and finished 3rd) or possible look at the sex of the horses and see if a particular sex has won more for your system? Maybe only back those that have an apprentice on, or haven't had a change of jockey?

I'm just throwing random ideas here but look outside the square a bit and you might find that it tips you from that break even position to a profitable position.

Lord Greystoke 4th September 2013 11:08 AM

PS Widest barrier

LG

gunny72 4th September 2013 11:36 AM

go for the longer price

stugots 4th September 2013 11:54 AM

or dutch them win a set amount regardless which wins

partypooper 4th September 2013 12:41 PM

Ev, no rules as such I end up with 2 horses derived from other peoples selections. The apprentice approach is interesting.

LG. tried widest barrier,..... same LOT Haven't tried TAB no. I can see how that might have a bearing in handicaps but there's a lot of maiden races as well?

Gunny. Longest price = lesser S/R , greater Ave SP but..... same LOT

Stugs. Dutching lesser runs of outs but....... same LOT

Stugs: re value, yes working on this at the mo, thinking of using the PPP (as a rating) and only back when say +20% is available, no data yet though.

LG. Yes PPM could definitely be worked on, my ee male is lumbasakabayo att hott male dott comm

stugots 4th September 2013 01:54 PM

Do you use Betfair PP?

If so then you could choose to only back when odds there provided a premium over the tote or bookie you currently use.

garyf 4th September 2013 02:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Does anyone have any thoughts on this subject, I have a plan that constantly throws 2 runners in a race, the race types can be any, I end up with about 25% winners, but backing em all, end up just short of even. I've had several attempts to try and split the selections so there is always only 1 bet per race, I've tried splitting based on price, position in the pre-post market, rating, Draw, Last start.
So far haven't managed to change that small loss into a profit,

any ideas?
Without interfering with the selection method i would do this.

Put both selections through this criteria..

1)State.
2) Country-metro-provincial track.

EG.

B/DGO= V/P VICT PROV.
PT/MACQ= S/C SYDNEY COUNTRY.
E/FARM = QM QUEENSLAN METRO.
GAWLER =A/P ADELAIDE PROVINCIAL.

If you are talking about the P.P.M. method,
That gets long priced winners forget the above.

There is no way i'm giving advice on how to keep a $101.00
Winner and delete a stack of losers to keep it.



Cheers.
Garyf.


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