Hi,

I was wondering if someone with a large results database would mine running a query for me...

I am looking to see the number of winners (as a percentage of total races examined) that meet the following criteria:

1. Place strike rate greater than 50%;
2. Finished first or second last start;
3. Weight no less than 53kgs and no more than 57kgs;
4. Drawn barrier 9 or inside;
5. Price between $3 - $5.

I have run these criteria through my limited database and found a high percentage of winners/placegetters.

Wondering if it stacks up long term...


Luckyboy

Tested over 2000 bets
-17% LOT
20% SR

Bhagwan,

Many thanks for the stats. Seems like it might be a case of 'back to the drawing board!'


LB

G'day Luckyboy.
I wouldn't give up just yet, I'm sure its only a case of finding the "Winning combination" but it reminded me of something I tested a while ago, it didn't work at the higher prices, so I ran it through again and again, at diminishing prices, and guess what? the lower the price the higher the SR and the lower the LOT (surprise surprise) when I got down to 1/1 or less a profit was produced. I then did the same exm acercise with all the plans I had with the same result. Then I went a step further and tested the price thoery over all and randomly without any other criteria and guess what???? YUP the same result. In other words back a Thousand 1/1 chances (derived from ANY source) and you'll show a slight loss on T/O)
back a Thousand 3/1 chances (from ANY source) and you'll show a bigger Loss on T/O.

Pretty sobering stuff I know (thats why my username is "Partypooper) but the message is, whatever the source of info, the ONLY way to win is to obtain 4-1 for the 3-1 chance, and 5/4 for the 1/1 chance etc etc and you WILL WIN!!! (long term)

Partypooper,

Thanks for the tips, I will look into it a bit further.

Bhagwan,

Are you able to tell me from your data what the POT would be on your analysis using a 1:4 win/place bet ratio?


LB

[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-06-18 17:49 ]

don't think the message quite got through there but, but GOOD LUCK anyway!!