Combinatorial Calculus?
 

****** is that!! It's something most of us use every betting day? It's refining selections by adding combinations of different filters to hopefully increase you Expected Probability of winning beyond the norm.

You might use four factors to handicap a horse, let's say it's 4 ranks of whatever filter. So a combination of 1-1-1-1 ranks,is the optimum wish list combination, however everyone else is looking to use it as well. The result, you end up losing, coz there's no value there.

I rank every selection in a race with a Combinatorial score. In a 7 horse race the optimum would be 1-1-1-1 to the worst 7-7-7-7. I liken it to a poker machine spinning 4 wheels. OK, so what! Well if you gather enough scores, and at the same time deduct losses and add wins attributable to each score, you start to find a pattern of profitable to non profitable combinations. Use a Vlookup of the profitable ones to trigger bets. There's going to be a lot of deviation from the mean happening here too, what looks like a good combination can be hit by an unexpected run of accidents, when you least expect. It's an averaging exercise

Put some order into your betting methods, and it will return spades.

Hi RP,

It’s a great idea however one that would be outside of the reach of those who do not have your Excel experience and data. If you don't mind me mentioning, there is a ready made alternative available.

Anyone who may wish to save time and effort, increase consistency and accuracy or may be just like to get some ideas of how one can put something like this together, please read on.

As a tool, this is already in existence in R2W Axis. It’s called Consensus panel! The user is able to assign an importance factor to the ranks of any/all of our predictive ratings, and also import up to 5 external ratings that they may have access to.

The method is simplified by only having to assign an importance factor to the rating. Once complete, Axis works out all the 1111 and 2222 and so on using percentage weightings based on each field size. Users can also over/under value or remove any of the ratings from the calculation.

Importantly clients can back test their combinations against the native ratings until they arrive at an optimal combination. This combination is then saved and used to automatically pre-calculate the rating for today's races when the days file is imported. The Consensus rating can also be used in systems which can be automatically run and provide the selections when a day is loaded into the Axis interface.

Finally, users can analyse all of the other filters and factors in reference to the ranks of the Consensus panel rank or rating to assist in finding profitable combinations based on this custom rating. They can also expand the consensus panel rating by also assigning values to some other pre-set form factors. This will eventually be expanded to allow any form factor to be valued for this purpose.

The tool is available in all subscriptions including Axis Historical (past data files only) which for the price tag of only $396 p.a. offers everyone the opportunity to test and build combinations with past data not only from the perspective of developing a Consensus rating, but also provides the opportunity to delve into other types of data, many of which aren’t available in other commercial software and databases.

As a matter of fact, I do mind!

You're up to your old tricks of using someone's thread as a platform to launch into marketing your product. Presumptuous of you to think that having some basic excel skills is beyond the ability of most forumites. As a former R2W subscriber, I am more than familiar with the limitations of your product and the costs involved.

More than happy to elaborate if you so wish? Quick, .....get on the phone to the Moderator!!!

That is pretty much what stuff my does now, i find assigning a score to each form variable adds consistency, as punters we become emotionally attached to horses, nothing wrong with that but if you remove that part or atleast dull it down you may find yourself not backing as many losers.

RP, I'm sorry you feel that way, if you however believe that the Marketing value of this thread is worth the temptation of me 'intruding' on your thread, get over yourself. Im just trying to help people, and save them time if I can.

As far as the other thing:

Moderator? Not necessary! PLEASE ELABORATE! We would love nothing more then to have the opportunity to deal with real FACTS regarding your Axis experience instead of your innuendoes, snipes and one-sided stories.

What are you a charity? I don't think so. You charge a pretty penny for your 'help', but that's what you're in business for after all. Use of 'embedded' promotion in posts might suit your financial interests, but the rest of us can't get away with it.

As for telling MY side...seems I've tried to, on occasion, and those posts seem to get deleted and me banned? But maybe that's what you're hoping for? Something about editorial control at the behest of the advertisers?

Happy to leave it there. How boutz' you leave your marketing to your dedicated Ratings2Win thread, and if you want to offer some advise or help, keep it without reference to R2W. You might just come across as the sincere type that way?

My understanding is that they pay an advertisement fee to the site that allows them to advertise the product, but am not sure about how far that stretches to adding to posts as you have stated.

Despite the infomercial post and subsequent rebuttals, there hasn't been much real interest thus far in this thread.

Let me see if I can stimulate some interest? Most punters look at a group of runners and price their chances. Once a horse is priced, we look to the market to see if it's a value bet. All very logical.

But wait....what if you assess a selection by four well researched means and put a rank or % chance of winning on each. It might be three different ratings together with price, all converted to a price %.

It might look like this: 20% + 15% + 25% + 10% / 4 = 17.5%

Convert that to a price = $5.71

Now compare that to the market. But wait....there's more. That combination if converted to ranking might look like this: 2, 4, 2, 5

Your database for that combination will have wins and losses. Sum up the nett win/ loss to date. It may well be that it's showing a strike rate of only 14%. This is the second overall filter. You need to adjust this calculation on a regular basis. You also need a big database of several years, as you're breaking your stats into much smaller samples.

Effectively it means you're having multiple bets per race and need a staking plan to suit, possibly Kelly.

Got my attention, staking plan/s


I posted and made reference to a staking plan but the thread RIPeed,
Still in use, don't know what I do without it.
It stakes for win, as suggested by the author I think in 1965, .333% of your betting bank.
I think maybe cos I posted my example at $100 bet bank, and the first bet was rounded up to $1.00 ? IDKnow
So, if you can post the win/loss streak and the average bet to win prices, at a glance I may be able to tell if it suits.
"at a glance" cos I see it everyday on test, hence the bet-sender project.
But oh, wait, $1.00 bets ?? how on punter's land can anyone make a living with $1.00 bets ??
Well, try a $2500 start bank @ .333% for bet 1
Or $5000, 10K who cares, it's .333%
If one's selection method don't profit on test @ $100.00 start bank, then what hope is there at the ideal $2,500.00 start bank ?
I'd rather start at $100 in real dosh and rake it in to the $2500
When 2500 is reach, keep 1500 in reserve and start again at 1000.
You have pocketed 1500.
Sure, we read others do #K's per day turnover.
So what?
Many don't relate to those figures.

However,

Count the won/loss streak over 3 month minimum/per day, in sequential time order of the races suitable to your personal preferences, and refining becomes either an art, obsession, or both.
So if you have , W.LLL.WW.LLLL.W.LLLLLL.'WWW.LL.W.L.W., or similar, a good staking plan may work, depending the odds/prices you bet on.

Oh, and emm, it's a loss chaser in principal,

It's been a bit strange around here lately. I think the Mod(s) have been on holiday for at least 3 months or so as I can't remember one post being edited in that time (although I don't think there have been too many biffos in that time). There's also been mention of other websites, etc. I like it.