Calling the Maths guys
 

Can anyone answer this:

laying 2 horses per race (mechanical pics) always 2 separate nags.

First 1 S/R to lose is 70%

Second 1 S/R to lose is 95%

What is the projection for both to lose?

Its not that hard.

Its the sum of the win chances.


30% chance to win of the first one + 5 % chance of the seocnd one to win = 35% chance one of them might win.

So your odds are 75% that both will lose.

?????
Doesn't add up and not that simple.

Interested on your take Mark.

Must say though I dont Lay bet and know nothing about it.

But all info is helpful.

Cheers.

lol. Your right I got it the wrong way around.

There is a 35% chance as I said of one winning but 100-35 = 65%.

Stupid mistake. Thanks Mark.

I'm starting to think it also depends on field size to some extent and maybe even relates to price ranges as well?

Well obviously it relates to the odds but you gave a very simple set of stats and I gave you the very basic answer based on that.


If you had 2 horses in the race at $100 then your chance of losing is only 2%. So you have a 98% chance of winning.

But if they were both $10 then your chance of losing 20% and your chance of winning is only 80%.

Its pretty easy to work out but useless without more detailed understanding of what you are trying to do and why you want to know it.

UB, yes of course, but my mechanical system that I quote as 95% failure rate picks the selection with no reference to the price whatsoever so it could be 1-2 or 100-1, I guess that is why I am perplexed. The other one is , well lets just say the average divi (or expected average divi is around $2.80)

Near impossible to work out, as UB states the price has to have an effect.
And what if party's 95% lay is also the 70% lay?

nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.
And UB, what I was attempting to do (though I now see is probably impossible) was this:

Possible scenarios
(1) System 1 the nag loses but system 2 the nag wins (what %)

(2)System2 loses but system 1 wins (what %)

(3) Both system horses lose (what %)

Given that system 1 has 70% losing S/R (overall)
and system 2 has 95% losing S/R (overall)