Melbourne Cup 2019
 

Yes, I do feel silly for starting a thread about it this early. But there has been news.

Another race has been announced as having a ballot exemption for the Melbourne Cup. The Andrew Ramsden, to be held on May 29th next year, will give locals a greater chance of making the final field. Its timing is ahead of the Spring arrival of international raiders. This follows particularly strident criticism of the race becoming too "international" in recent editions.

This year's victor was Sin To Win, who had an Official Rating of 84 at the time, which increased to 94 during the Spring. Megablast is similarly a 6yo gelding, was among the final acceptances, has a rating of 102 and was given 52.5kg for the big race. Arguably Sin To Win would have been given 50kg (the minimum weight for 4yo&up horses), so would possible have already been 1.5kg off the pace.

Of course the standard would be expected to be raised an account of the announcement. Also sweetening the pot: an increase in prizemoney from $200k to $400k.

The other change is in the race conditions. It will drop down to 2800m from the previous 3200m, and entry will be limited to 3 to 5yo's. The rationale, according to the Victoria Racing Club, being an effort "aimed to afford Australia’s brightest young stayers the chance to compete" in the Melbourne Cup. The race will also now be held under weight-for-age conditions.

Per the VRC CEO: "Unlike the other four Lexus Melbourne Cup ballot exempt races, the timing of The Andrew Ramsden outside of spring means the winner can have their program tailored towards the Lexus Melbourne Cup, something which owners and trainers will appreciate."


...now I'll just have to remember this thread exists in a few months' time! ;)

Inside two weeks to the new ballot exempt race for the Melbourne Cup, The Andrew Ramsden.

Flemington, May 25th

Race 9 - The Andrew Ramsden (2800 METRES)
Of $400,000. 1st $240,000, 2nd $72,000, 3rd $36,000, 4th $18,000, 5th $10,000, 6th $8,000, 7th $8,000, 8th $8,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution Listed
No class restriction, Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Four-Years-Old and Five-Years-Old, No sex restriction


Nominations close: Mon 20-May-19 12:00PM AEST

Weights for competitors in the Andrew Ramsden will see three-year-olds carrying 55kg, four-year-olds 59kg and five-year-olds 59.5kg, with fillies and mares receiving a 2kg allowance.

Some of the possible starters:
Eastender (5yoG - 102 rating)
Steel Prince (5yoG - 94 rating)
Felaar (5yoG - 86 rating)
Alfarris (5yoG - 86 rating)


Surprise Baby (4yoG - 100 rating)
Furrion (4yoG - 98 rating)


Mr Quickie (3yoG - 90 rating)

Here are the nominees for Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The winner will receive a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.

1	1x21111x15	EASTENDER	G	5	Barry Campbell	1	58.5kg		102
2	0x34100x04	RUNAWAY	R	4	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	2	58kg		101
3	078x056782	SOPRESSA	M	4	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace	3	56kg		89
4	1151413	SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	G	4	Paul Preusker	4	58kg		100
5	116x033216	TRANSACT	G	3	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	5	54kg		85
6	21122x1111	STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	G	5	Anthony Freedman	6	58.5kg		99
7	3658x57352	SHEEZDASHING	M	4	Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra	7	56kg		88
8	x12120x461	ALFARRIS (FR)	G	5	David & B Hayes & T Dabernig	8	58.5kg		93
9	52132x8830	AZURO (FR)	G	5	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace	9	58.5kg		82
10	2218x98006	TIFFANY’S LASS	M	5	Danny Laws	10	56.5kg		75
11	8150x08008	SERENADE THE STARS (IRE)	G	5	Peter Gelagotis	11	58.5kg		74
12	274x236152	BARRY THE BAPTIST	G	5	Paul A Jones	12	58.5kg		80
13	723x512103	FELAAR (NZ)	G	5	Stephen Marsh	13	58.5kg		88
14	321492691	GOLDEN AUTHORITY (NZ)	G	5	Dane Smith	14	58.5kg		81
15	142x710x61	SASKO	G	4	Tony McEvoy	15	58kg		80
16	6x38111324	ROCKARRAL	G	4	Tony McEvoy	16	58kg		78
17	x521356121	CHOUXTING THE MOB (NZ)	G	5	Simon Morrish	17	58.5kg		69
18	314247x815	SAN REMO (IRE)	G	5	Dane Smith	18	58.5kg		68
19	8488343321	BEMBOKA QUEEN	M	4	Robbie Laing	19	56kg		65
20	6466x35984	INSTIGATOR (GER)	G	5	Aaron Purcell	20	58.5kg		76
21	427x221243	SKYWAY STAR	F	3	Symon Wilde	21	52kg		66
22	35110x5143	FAIRLIGHT (IRE)	G	4	Kris Lees	22	58kg		72
23	6474907934	MENTAL TELEPATHY (NZ)	G	5	Simon Morrish	23	58.5kg		73
24	0185x12337	AMERICAN IN PARIS	G	3	Symon Wilde	24	54kg		67

Surprise Baby looks one of the likeliest candidates.

Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans.

Steel Prince is the first horse into the 2019 Melbourne Cup after winning last weekend's Andrew Ramsden. He's at $31 in early Melbourne Cup betting, finishing just 0.1L ahead of Surprise Baby ($26) who inarguably had the better race: drawn second widest, 3 wide or worse the trip, back further than midfield but took the lead at the 200m mark before being narrowly out-sprinted in the final furlong. Eastender ($67) flashed home to finish in 3rd position, 2.4L adrift.

Having a ballot exemption for the Andrew Ramsden was intended to provide a pathway for Australian horses into the Cup. While Steel Prince is Irish-bred and had a handful of early races there, it seems he's been a local since 2017. From August 2018, Steel Prince has had 11 starts for 7 wins and 4 seconds (with all bar two starts at 2400m or greater).

Now spelling, his connections will be able to tailor his Spring program so that he peaks on Cup Day.




(sorry for my dupe info Rogan Josh, I've had this browser tab open for a couple of days waiting for motivation to strike; I didn't refresh before posting)

Prizes
First - $4,000,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively
Second - $1,000,000
Third - $500,000
Fourth - $300,000
Fifth - $200,000
Sixth - $150,000
Seventh - $150,000
Eighth - $150,000
Ninth - $150,000
Tenth - $150,000
Eleventh - $150,000
Twelfth - $150,000

For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows:
Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5%


Entries
Entries close at 12 NOON on THURSDAY 29 AUGUST 2019. Fee - $1800.
(Late Entries: Any horse not previously entered may be nominated before 12 NOON on THURSDAY 5 SEPTEMBER 2019. Fee - $5,500.)


Handicaps
Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2018.

Benchmark Weights:
3YO C&G 50.0kg; 3YO Filly 48.5kg
4YO E&G 58.0kg; 4YO Mare 56.5kg
5YO+ E&G 59.5kg 5YO+ Mare 58.0kg

Change to benchmark weights this year:
NH 3YO C&G 56.5kg; NH 3YO Filly 55.0kg


Minimum Handicap Weight:
3YO 49.0kg
4YO&Up 50.0kg.

There is no maximum weight for this race. Minimum top weight of 58kg at the time of weights being released. There is no minimum top weight after acceptances.

No allowances for apprentices.


Weight Penalties
The Handicapper can determine that, after declaration of weights, a subsequent winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race may carry additional weight. (It's only applicable for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m).


Declarations of Acceptance
There is now a third declaration ahead of final declarations. It now costs an additional $1,000 all-up, in comparison to last year.

First Declaration: TUESDAY 1 OCTOBER (Fee: $2,000)
Second Declaration: TUESDAY 15 OCTOBER (Fee: $3,000)
Third Declaration: MONDAY 28 OCTOBER (Fee: $4,000

Final Declaration: SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER (Fee: $49,500)
Any horse for which a declaration is not received is removed from the race.


Rider Notification
By 7.00 PM, SATURDAY 2 NOVEMBER


Ballot Exemptions
- 2019 Andrew Ramsden
- 2019 VRC Bart Cummings
- 2019 VRC Hotham Handicap (Lexus Stakes)
- 2019 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup


Qualifying Performances

A) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further;
OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the:

Queensland Derby (2018 - Dark Dream, Heavenly Thought, Mahamedeis; 2019 - TBH 8th June),
Queensland Oaks (2018 - Youngstar, Another Dollar, Sheezdashing; 2019 - TBH 1st June), or

Brisbane Cup (2018 - Sedanzer, Anton En Avant, Kiwia; 2109 - TBH 8th June) OR

B) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR

C) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR

D) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK; 2018 - Muntahaa, Weekender, Sea The Lion; 2019 - TBH 24th August) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK; 2018 - Pakistan Star, Exultant, Gold Mount; 2019 - Exultant, Rise High, Dark Dream), OR

E) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK; 2018 - Withhold; 2019 - TBH 29th June), Cesarewitch (UK; 2018 - Low Sun; 2019 - TBH 12th October), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK; 2018 - Exultant; 2019 - Mulanchi), OR

F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup (20th October), OR

G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2019 MVRC Cox Plate (26th October), OR

H) won the 2019 VRC TAB Turnbull Stakes (5th October), OR

I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2017 Emirates Melbourne Cup (Rekindling, Johannes Vermeer, Max Dynamite), OR

J) won the 2017 Caulfield Cup (Boom Time)


Ballot order will be - asides from those runners who are exempt - in descending weight figure. Those of equal weight will be ordered by aggregate prizemoney received in Qualifying Races since 1 February 2018 inclusive.


Progressive order of entry lists will be available on a regular basis from Friday 13 September 2019.

The Queensland Oaks are on tomorrow. Last year's first two placegetters - Another Dollar and Youngstar - both nominated for the 2018 Melbourne Cup, with the latter making the final field and finishing in 6th position. The winner of the Oaks will score $300,000: which was enough to be 31st in the initial Order of Entry list last year (Youngstar also came 3rd in the Queensland Derby - another qualifying race - which bumped her eligible prizemoney up enough so that she was in 28th). Youngstar subsequently earned $120,000 for a 7th placing in the Caulfield Cup to be #22 on the big day.

While of course dependent on overseas entrants, the Oaks winner will be in a very good position to make the Melbourne Cup final field. Northern hemisphere 3 years olds in the Cup have also collectively been penalised 1kg this year, so perhaps that will result in fewer entries making their way here.

The race favourite is PRINCESS JENNI, who has a 4kg advantage on the rest of the field per the official handicap ratings. She won the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville earlier this month over 2000m on a soft track. She also has the same sire as Youngstar: High Chaparral. Her broodmare sire is Zabeel, which is a mix that has had some pretty good results. Per the Nicking Stats for mares by Zabeel (NZ) when bred to High Chaparral (IRE), progeny have nearly 5 times the average earning index. It looks like she'll have no problem getting the Cup distance; to the extent that I was worried she may be too dour. Following her Australasian Oaks win though, a stable rep said: "Every time since her maiden win, she's always been sharp, always had a serious turn of foot and to overcome a bunch of problems in the run to sprint like that when the gap came was impressive." So if Princess Jenni can back up and win tomorrow she's a good chance of making the Cup field....and finishing 5th-10th. (No mare has finished better than 5th the past 11 runnings).



Overseas this weekend, one could cast their gaze to the Group 2 Grand Prix De Chantilly or the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

The latter, set to jump just after midnight tonight, is likely to be of more interest, with the following starters:
Communique
Cypress Creek
Defoe
Kew Gardens
Marmelo
Morando
Old Persian
Salouen
Lah Ti Dar

Kew Gardens was number 1 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry last year but elected not to come. He's favourite here at $3.25, with Old Persian ($4) and Lah Ti Dar ($4.50) close behind. Last year's Melbourne Cup second placegetter Marmelo is at $19.



Finche (4th) came through the Grand Prix De Chantilly last year. It's on June 2nd and it may be easier to find the runners in a day or so.

Huge effort Surprise Baby, wide most of the race. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the gelding pulled up distressed. He gave his all. I'm now a fan!

Boilover in the Queensland Oaks. Taking the victory was Winning Ways at $21, quickly followed by Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee: both at $151! Consequently the exotics were HUGE. The trifecta paid over $180k on UBet; though 'only' $10k in NSW. The first four were all over the $100k mark across all pools.

Winning Ways wasn't that bad of a prospect. She had won 3 of her last 4, though finished midfield in The Roses - her immediately preceding race - which seemed to turn people off. Per the race notes, she got way too far back in that run from a wide draw, running on comfortably but left with too much to do.

It seems silly to say given that she won, but Winning Ways clearly had the best run today. The leading four in running (which included race favourite Princess Jenni) took the field along at a fast clip, with Winning Ways a small break behind. Finishers in second through fifth were all running towards the rear and gobbled up a tired field, though Winning Ways was able to hold them all off.

It was an emotional win, given that her owner had died the preceding week. After the race her trainer Garry Newham said: "This is the best filly I have ever had my hands on. She could be a Caulfield Cup horse". Following the race though, stewards reported she had bled and is banned from racing for three months - likely she was to spell anyway. Hopefully she can come back fit and healthy for a Spring campaign.

So: Winning Ways, Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee have all now passed the first ballot clause of the Melbourne Cup. The latter pairing will likely have to win a few more qualifying races to amass enough eligible prizemoney to threaten making the final field. You could read into the trainer's statement somewhat that there are queries at the Cup distance.

Watch the full race here: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au...20190309/race/6


The Coronation Cup has been run in the UK with Defoe taking out a comfortable 0.5L win ahead of Kew Gardens. They broke away from the rest of the field, putting on an additional 5 lengths. The race was one of the fastest of latter years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYRP4st_-Cw

Leading into the race Defoe had an Official Handicap Rating (from Irish authorities) of 115, whereas Kew Gardens (from British authorities) was 120. They were at level weights here and Kew Gardens was said to be targeting this race since the start of the season. So a very encouraging performance by Defoe (who also beat the 117-rated Marmelo by 9 lengths). Would likely receive a very challenging handicap for the Melbourne Cup now and one could think it pretty unlikely that either of Defoe or Kew Gardens will try their luck in Australia.


The field is set for the Grand Prix de Chantilly:
Listen In
Aspetar
Gyllen
Silverware
Petit Fils
Folamour
Ziyad

Aspetar is owned by Sheikh Fahad al Thani (of Qatar Bloodstock), who won the 2011 Melbourne Cup with Dunaden, trained by Roger Charlton who had Quest For More in the 2015 Cup and failed to qualify with Withhold last year.

Gyllen is a Godolphin runner trained by Andre Fabre, who brought Vadamos to Australia in 2016 (finishing 4th in both the Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes).

Both Folamour and Ziyad are owned by Wertheimer & Frere, a racing and breeding operation. They bred Americain and Dunaden, amongst others, but I'm not sure they have brought any runners out here themselves.

Aspetar looks a particularly interesting candidate: resuming in April over a Group 3 2400m, he finished in 2nd place, 1 length behind Marmelo and 3 lengths ahead of Defoe at level weights. Didn't do so well in his next, but was said not to handle the soft conditions. 2w-3p from 7 starts. Looks like he should be able to handle further than 2400m.

Both have firmed in the Cup market I've been watching
Steel Prince $21,,Surprise Baby $26
Cross Counter $15 favourite