Calling UB - accurate test results
 

To UB or anyone else that has some thoughts on this.

I am setting up a spread sheet to accurately record results, i will be running multiple systems and i want to record how each system is doing.

Because each race could have runners from each system i need to account for this, i can record the race results ok with commission paid so i will have an overall P/L but not sure how i should separate the systems.

I could record the results for each system and exclude commission but this would give me an inaccurate P/L

I could separate runners from each system in each race then calculate the race result just based on those runners, this could include commission.

I feel the second option is best as it creates a race within a race to give me an accurate result.

Shaun,

I assume your talking about results from real bets/lays. This is how I do it.

I have one table that records the race result (profit/loss and commission) regardless of selections.

It has :
Race id
Profit Loss
Commission

I have another table which records the bets that are placed and which systems have selected the selection and how much they each bet on it. This is where mine gets a little tricky. So I could have 10 selections all bet $1000 on a selection but I have a maximum liability of $5K. So I record that $10K would have gone on for those systems and also store the actual size of $5k as the total bet size.

So it has:

Race Date
Race Id
Selection Id
Profit/Loss
Bet Id
Type Of Bet (Lay or Back)
System Id
Bet Size for the system
Total Bet Size on the selection

I can then use these two tables with a bit of SQL magic to correctly work out the actual bet size for the system (if it was scaled back) and what portion of the commission should be assigned to it.

You may not have the above problem if you do not have too many systems. In that case your Bet Size of the System will always equal your total bet size. I can't do that.

So back to your original question ... it needs to be option 2.

Doing back testing on what if scenarios that include how systems interact with each other is actually really hard to do. The reason being that sometimes including a losing system can actually result in more profit because it turns over and generates commission for your account offsetting any premium charge. That's getting a little advanced though for your average systems bettor. Talk to me about it if you are paying premium charge on betfair and I can help out with some tips.

I forgot to add I actually have a third table which puts in bets placed but not matched. I might put in to lay the Favourite under $1.80 but it never gets to $1.80 pre race. This allows me to somewhat see if my stakes are having an impact on the odds and how much.

Thanks for that info, i have pretty much covered all you have above, PC doesn't effect me as yet and will be some time before i have to worry about that.

I will continue along the same lines then as i will be using real stakes and it is the best option with the tables.

When your analysing systems what commission % do you use as a base commission ?

I would usually test with a 6.5% unless I am knowingly targeting states with higher commission. Before you hit premium charge the commission discount can really help with some systems.

Once premium charge comes in its a little different. The commission on a race to race basis no longer matters as its 20%-60% of your gross profit. It took me a while to get my head around it but before you pay premium charge basically on a race to race basis the commission you pay is important. It can turn a winning system into a losing system. But once you have to pay premium charge its no longer a concern. You are paying 20% regardless. So just take 20% commission on total profit and that is all you need to care about.

Unfortunately I am approaching the Premium Charge at higher rates which will turn my charges into 40%. That is not as big an issue as it sounds as I have ways of generating turnover for minimum profit but large commission generation. Its a win for Betfair as I generate liquidity for them and it keeps my charge stable enough. Unfortunately for me I need to generate a lot of commission as my current commission to gross profit ratio is 25%.

Unless i know exactly what i will be paying i always used 8% that may sound a bit high but i was pretty much using Aus racing so it is the middle ground between 6 and 10

I have no idea how the premium charge works and will, most likely, never get there. For us laypeople how does this work if they take 20% from you? How can they justify that? It seems an awful lot of greed on their part.

They justify it by saying that they need that level of turnover for advertising, etc to bring in more punters for the winning punters to keep playing against.

It affects less than 0.5% of punters because most punters win and lose often and generate commission. Some punters do not lose very often. These punters (0.5%) end up paying less commission overall so to bring them up to the average commission that other punters pay we get charged 20%.

Trust me 20% is fine. Its when you hit the next level where I am going to feel it. When you get to the premium charge at higher rates you are paying 40% on commission. I expect to hit that level this year. To be at the higher rates you must have:

1. Lifetime net profits*** exceed 250,000 pounds. (about $450K-$475K AUD)
2. Commission generated less than 40% of lifetime gross profits
3. Bet in more than 1,000 markets

I meet condition 2 and 3 at the moment. I am quickly approaching condition number 1 and as I said will more than likely hit it early this year.


I don't mind paying the commission. I use the platform, I make a profit. I just see it as a tax which I can generate easily enough with break even systems which in turn increases liquidity and makes it a better platform for other punters.