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-   -   5% Monthly Return & Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=380)

Don 29th December 2001 09:24 PM

I stumbled across the Propun website and was intrigued by the stats there enough to see if it would be possible to make a buck out of it. After a few calcs with the spreadsheet I came up with the following:

The information on the website leads one to believe that with a bit of effort one may be able to consistently increase ones bank by 5% per month (give or take a couple) using the tips from the service. However common sense says that I would not be able to do that at infinitum because we would be winning so much money after a few years we could buy out Microsoft . Somewhere the service and ones' betting skill would have to provide a series of loosing months whereby the bank got severely 'busted' and destroy the illusion of buying out bill gates. So as far as systems are concerned, no staking system will work if the selections are crap, so the only hope is to get 'inside' knowledge as provided by the ProPun service or someone who has the inside word at the track. As far as I can deduce, the only hope to win in the long run is the consistent quality of selections; whether by inside info or tipping service - Could I interest anybody to pick the eyes out of the above logic?

The Catparrot 29th December 2001 10:09 PM

I don't know about 5% per month, but then I don't operate with a bank myself. But I know I have adequate betting resources to cover the worst runs should they ever happen.
I've had a look at some of the pick four results given in the recent news on this site with the accompanying ratings.
What it tells me is "You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink."
Most punters I suspect will continue to lose no matter how good the information they receive because they want to feel comfortable with their betting. To do that they all bet alike. That's why there are so many false favourites and false short priced horses.
Punting on horses is a negative sums game. You can only win at the expense of losers. It's because of all the losing punters out there that I can back plenty of winners at lucrative odds and get huge overs for my exotics plays.

Don 30th December 2001 03:51 PM

Thanks for the reply Catparrot

If I understand your reply correctly, you are saying most punters, for whatever reason, just won't drink(take inside knowledge), and in order to survive in the long run as a professional punter, you also need a good size kitty to bet your way out of a loosing run.

Don

The Catparrot 30th December 2001 06:13 PM

Spot on. Most punters are addicted to short priced horses and tote firmers. I love it. Helps me win.
Money management is probably just as important as what you back. That's my opinion anyway. Without it you'll blow your profits. Look at it this way. If you win small and increase your bets as your bank increases when you have a losing run money is lost much quicker than when it was won. That's why so many "disciplined" punters will not win. They lose their winnings in fewer bets than it took them to accumulate.
Then they are back to where they started with a bet size totally inappropriate to the money they have remaining. So they start off again with very small bets.
Something to think about.
The Catparrot.


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