My long shot system scored today at Mornington R6. Geebung Flyer. Not boasting, but drawing attention to the race.

This was an interesting race. If you look at the TABQ ratings on-line you will see that over half the field was rated 97.

I don't want to spell out the details of the system I use but it is simple and based on identifying races with lots of horses all rated the same. It is based on the overall shape of the ratings in that race rather than on the rating of individual horses.

Today's race was a paradigm case. In such a race - considering a few other factors - back some long shots. If you are constructing long shot systems, races with lots of horses all rated the same are a good basis and quick to consult on the TABQ.

Races with lots of horses rated 99 or 100 very often go to the roughies in the $20+ range it seems to me. Can anyone offer stats on that?

These are usually races where the betting is far more uneven than the ratings.


Hermes