Here's a placegetters plan I've had in my files, modified from a British bloke whose url i've lost. No doubt there have been versions around before. There's quite a few keen placebetters here so it might be worth trotting out again. You don't need to select horses: the market prices do that and in every case we're on favourites. All you need to do is pick the right races.
The objective is to find 6 placegetters in one day. This would be easy if we could bet on three runners per race, but too expensive and unprofitable. Instead, we cast bets over 6 races, one bet on two races, two bets on two races and three bets on two races: 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 3 You have to plan your day into a sequence of six races across meetings. You need a day with lots of decent meetings. (In which case forget those night meetings!) To start with, find two races at any meeting early in the day (races 1-3) with short priced favourites you are confident will run a place, even at a piddling return. No NTD races. These are your one runner bets. Now look at races late in the day (races 6-8) and find two races you fancy with large or largish fields. These are your three runner bets. Selections are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites. Now look to the races in the middle of the day (4-5) and find two races you like with favourites in the $3-4 win range and select the favourite and second favourite to place. You don't need to stick to those race divisions but you need to find six races across meetings in chronological sequence. The newspaper tipsters and the like will usually help pinpoint the right races. You carry winnings from leg to leg in a six race all-up. First leg you put down a unit on one runner, carry to one runner in the second leg. By then you have enough to back two runners in the next leg, which funds the next leg (two runners also) and then three runners in the last two legs. Obviously, you hope for cases of multiple placegetters in the final four legs but this is not essential to having a winning day. Its not too difficult to achieve, risk decreases as bet increases, outs will usually occur early in the sequence before you do your dough, and if you start with an initial $10 bet you can turn a substantial profit on a good day following quite "safe" placebets. Hermes |
84 looks but no responses to this post. Oh well. I don't care. Its a good plan anyway.
I'd like to point out that this plan is exactly tailored to the favourites phenomenon being discussed so eruditely in another thread by Felecity and co. Felicity provides figures demonstrating that faves win more in early races than later. True, but one of the reasons for this - if not the reason - is simply that you tend to have bigger fields in later races: that's the whole reasoning behind this plan. Single bets on strong faves in early races expanding to three bets on 1st, 2nd, 3rd faves in later races. Since when do we call parlays "yankees" in this country? Hermes |
Quote:
10 yrs data, all dists all going all days all trax .......... avg. field sizes are :- R1...9 R2...9 R3...9 R4...9 R5..10 R6..10 R7..11 R8..12 cheers |
Many thanks for those figures Felicity.
I'II have a stab at this today: First Leg. Caulfield R1, #1 Second Leg. Rosehill R1 #4 Third Leg. Caulfield R4, #3, #4 Fourth Leg. Rosehill R5, #4, #5 Fifth Leg. Doomben R6 #1, #2, #3 Sixth Leg. Rosehill R8 #1, #2, #3 Twelve lines. After six placegetters in a row. Some nice races in Bendigo today. Good punting. Hermes |
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