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-   -   Winning saddlecloth stats (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4374)

14th March 2004 01:24 AM

Hi guys. Does anyone know of any sites that would contain statistics on winning saddlecloth numbers in either vic or nsw. I am working on a system and i could really do with these stats. I dont suppose anyone out there has a lazy couple of grand to invest ?

Thanks megamoos

Chrome Prince 14th March 2004 02:48 AM

Megamoos,

Metro races only:

TAB # 1
Runners:12,737
Winners: 2,205
S/R: 17.31%
LOT:-22.43%
Ave Div: $4.48

TAB # 2
Runners:12,829
Winners: 1,858
S/R: 14.48%
LOT:-14.97%
Ave Div: $5.87

TAB # 3
Runners:12,822
Winners: 1,648
S/R: 12.85%
LOT:-19.29%
Ave Div: $6.28

TAB # 4
Runners:12,799
Winners: 1,406
S/R: 10.99%
LOT:-26.18%
Ave Div: $6.72

TAB # 5
Runners:12,802
Winners: 1,262
S/R: 9.86%
LOT:-21.79%
Ave Div: $7.93

TAB # 6
Runners:12,587
Winners: 1,238
S/R: 9.84%
LOT:-9.24%
Ave Div: $9.23

TAB # 7
Runners:12,391
Winners: 961
S/R: 7.76%
LOT:-23.45%
Ave Div: $9.87

TAB # 8
Runners:11,914
Winners: 818
S/R: 6.87%
LOT:-26.21%
Ave Div: $10.75

TAB # 9
Runners:11,036
Winners: 711
S/R: 6.44%
LOT:-22.85%
Ave Div: $11.98

TAB # 10
Runners:9,789
Winners: 563
S/R: 5.75%
LOT:-20.42%
Ave Div: $13.84

That'll do for now.

bellarine bomber 14th March 2004 10:07 AM

Thanks for the figures C.P. - I have always felt that no. 6 does pretty well, & your data shows it out performs the others by a long way.

Megamoos - the only lazy thing I've got around here is my missus, & I doubt you'd want her.

bb

Chenille Prince 14th March 2004 10:19 AM

Looks like the handicappers are not doing their jobs :lol:

Chrome Prince 14th March 2004 11:46 PM

Megamoos,

Further to my last posting, I've done only a small sample on TAB #2 where TAB #1 is scratched (TAB# 2 is the highest saddlecloth)

Runners 100
Winners 20
Avg div: $3.28
Win S/R 20%

Will provide a larger sample soon.

15th March 2004 01:10 AM

thanks a heap for those very useful stats chrome prince. It confirms my sample I did as well. I grabbbed all my old newspapers and sampled 1000 races both vic metrop and country. The results I obtained were very similar. I was particularly interested in nos. 1,2,3

No.1 Strike rate 14.9% S/R place 13.3%
No.2 Strike rate 12.8% S/R place 11.6%
No.3 strike rate 13.7% S/R place 11.6%
No.4 strike rate 9.8% S/R place 9.6%
No.5.strike rate 9.6% S/R place 9.9%

Sorry, Belarine Bomber but how did u come up with number 6 as the best performed when number one is the go with2 and 3 as good backups, don't you reckon?
From these stats it boils down to at least a winner for every 7 or 8 races for each of these numbers (1,2,3) and in Chrome Prince's case slightly better.
The combined strike rate for these saddlecloths is a pretty high 40%+ for both stats. I've got the feeling that this trend has been continuing for a number of years. This leads me to the need for a system with stats like this, of which I have briefly mentioned in the betting systems forum. I'm gonna look over the past years if I can to put this idea into action.

Thanks all for your interest and keep it coming!

Cheers megamoos

bellarine bomber 15th March 2004 09:30 AM

Megamoos - My thoughts about no. 6 as the best performed number are based on profitability (or lack of it) - no. 6 was the least bad!!

LOT for no. 6 was -9.24%, way better than the others.

bb

16th March 2004 01:14 AM

Sorry Bellarine Bomber. Excuse my ignorance but what is LOT. Could you briefly explain it to me ?

Cheers megamoos

16th March 2004 01:30 AM

Me again. Forgot to ask but does anyone like Chrome prince have any stats on these :

the average starting price not for just winners but all runners with that number. I have been using only 5 to 1 to try and fully test the system.
Secondly does anyone have any stats on longest losing sequence for each saddlecloth or particularly say numbers 1 to 6

Thanks megamooooooooos

bellarine bomber 16th March 2004 09:56 AM

Megamoos - LOT = Loss On Turnover.

By backing no. 6 every time it started, you would have ended up losing 9.24% of the total amount you had outlaid. (according to C.P.'s data)

For the no.s you are interested in, no.1 lost 22.43%, no.2 lost 14.97%, & no.3 lost 19.29%.

No.6 is the 'least bad' by a long way.

bb


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