Just a few thoughts on winning.

If you are the average punter and lose $50 on average per week (approx. $2500/yr) then this is for your benefit. For every 100 punters, 95 will lose. Some faster than others. I work with a complete horse racing database and I can guarantee you that you are at a very distinct disadvantage.

My advice to you is to save up (about $2500 or preferably more)and find a good ratings site. Spend the $1000 - $2000 that it costs to subscribe with the remainder going to your betting bank. Don't give up your day job yet. I don't know what the ratings are like on this site as I do my own but a good site is well worth the investment.

If you had a $1000 bank and doubled it each year for 5 years, well that's $32,000. If you continue in the present format ($2500/yr loss) that amounts to a $12,500 loss in 5 years.

If you could make 20% profit on your bank per month (average) and compound it monthly for a year, your bank would have grown by 9 times.

Good Luck

My definition of luck is being able to take advantage of the opportunity when it presents itself. That is - good ratings

Just a few thoughts on not winning:

The overall success rate of punters has not improved since the invention of 'databases'.

There is nothing new about 'ratings' [they have been around since gambling begun in the murky waters of early history], they are called 'odds'.

Ratings are nothing new and the best are available free or for the price of the Sportsman, Wizard, Winning Post or even Best Bets or simply turning on your TV.

I'll wager any amount that paid for ratings are no better than what can be obtained free and that none of them can show an overall profit. Not a one [like a good wife or car, they wouldn't be for sale if they did].

Computers are brain dead and apart from a wonderful ability to store, cross reference
and even compute the best 'chance' according to input data, all computers are hopeless punters. Why ? Incomplete data that cannot be accurately gathered known as 'variables',which are as murky as mud.

When 'reason' goes out the window, so does your money and as yet there hasn't been a computer invented with enough of it to fit on the head of a pin and unique reasoning ability is required to make a profit on the punt.

The tote average winning SR is about 30%. Not enough to come out in front, but probably as good as anything available that can be bought.

The rating order as defined by the tote prices are the result of combined punter opinion. Better than this is up to each individual punters reasoning prowess through interpretation of any amount of freely available data.

No amount of money spent on any service will turn a loosing punter into a consistently winning punter. The best of them can improve your bottom line and all of them sold as 'roads to riches' are after your $2500 [or more] to improve their inventors bottom line !!!

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-29 06:08 ]

I agree with 95% od what you say.

There are 2 things that beat most punters. Rip-off merchants who run sites that sell ratings and themselves. I formally ran a small ratings site and it is my experience that most punters expect too much. When I was running my site, this site was one of my competitors. The handicapper seemed to be very genuine and state the obvious.

The punter needs to have a sound financial plan in place. He needs to be disciplined. This beats 95% of punters straight away. Side bets and whispers from the stable, emotional bets all help to send the average punter broke.

Most punters approach gambling with no sound financial plan in place. What do they do when they are on a winning streak / losing streak?

It was stated that the best ratings are available free, I strongly disagree with this. Try to get your head around this concept. The more people that follow a set of ratings, the less value returned, the more chance of failure. That covers your free ratings. I don't follow the free ratings and I most certainly don't follow the tips from the so-called racing experts on morning radio. How they ever got a job, I'll never know.

Do the math and if you can't find a good service, have a sustainable plan (long term) and be disciplined. If you don't the professional punters and bookies and government will take all your money.

Cheers

I think there is only ONE thing that beats most punters and that is not having the unique reasoning ability [found in unique personalities, and usualy not very nice ones either] required to recognize, manage and utilize freely available info. to create a winning edge.

The myth that anybody [including this writer who punts for fun ] can become a winning/pro. punter remains just that, a myth.

Cheers mate.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-29 09:11 ]

The owners of this very forum crash, would have you believe otherwise :???:

OOOPS !!!

an abridged version of my last post should read in the required positions ...'except any offers through the owners of this forum' :-****

I have followed all the things that you mentioned Turnip and indeed the methodology inevitably leads an average punter to empty pockets (and beerless weekends)...

Radio and TV pundits are no better or worse than the info I have received here or the many other racing sites and it amazes me when so called experts wax eloquently about a horse on TV...giving out incredible detailed information... total belief in what they are saying...never got an apology from anyone when the donkey runs up last the **************s (Ha Ha)...and there have definitely been days where these overpaid pundits do not come close to the accuracy to a lot of Williams and XPT's ratings...

Yes, a financial plan or a betting strategy that fits in comfortably with your personal $$$ situation is impt but my observation has been (and I need to look into this further when I get the time) is that your personal waging/betting system must extract the most out of the information that you attain (from a ratings system, mates' tips or whatever)...discipline and sticking to your strategy is the key (unfortunately, I am your average punter that can't resist the pub gossip LOLOLOL! lots of beerless weekends in the past but there have been some recent windfalls..tahnks to William, XPT et al on this site)...Good luck and Good punting!

cant help but put something in here.
i learned that there are a million selection methods all of which seem to produce some winners. compiling certain sets of variables seems to provide a certain number of winners but i havent found a combination of variables that provide a lot of winners.
times used to but seems too much work and is inconsistent these days.
but to get to the point. i use my listed horse methods and try many variables to follow each week to have some fun and on saturday i came up with a doosy and am almost too embarrassed to tell you.
i backed raven protector based on the relationship to its prizemoney won and price available and looked way over the odds.
as was yesterday with sportsbrat.
just a crazy thought. probably have a different one next week but still got some cash.

The secret to good punting is knowing the value of selection. I probably have a worse strike rate than most people who write on this site but I am able to get fantastic value.

It is not about how many winners you get but how much money you walk away with at the end of the day / week / year.

A lot of favourites are undervalued. If you continually accept odds below there face value then it is mathematically certain you will lose.

My value bet on Sunday was GREIGACIOUS who saluted at 25-1. Everyone seemed to jump off it after a bad race. It beat KABLAMMO in the start prior to that in Canberra. I rated it at 13-2. I had 2 other losses for the day but that more than made up for it.

See what you mean by 'Monday Posters' partypooper :lol:

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-03-29 22:48 ]