Hi All,

I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.

Does such a thing exist?

My current attempts revolve around Average Prize money (API) as measured against:

1. Race Prize money;
2. Prize money Average Last 3 Starts;
3. Prize Money Index against the rest of the Field.

But, at the end of the day I'm not getting it right.

Are there any suggestions out there?


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[quote]
On 2004-04-28 17:19, Luckyboy wrote:
I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.

Luckyboy: This works in determing the 'class' horse of the field, but it does take a bit of effort.

In handicap races for the following:
award one point for every kg above the minimum a horse is handicapped (ignoring any claims) - max 10 points;
determine a ranking order for win strike rate and award ten points for the top-ranked horse, nine for the second, etc;
do the same re the place ranking;
do the same for both the total prizemoney and the average prizemoney rankings and add the two together and then score out of ten, ie. combined top-ranked gets ten points etc.

Sum up all the points and what you will be left with should be the 'class' runner of the field.

Just one caution - be careful when ranking lightly raced horses.

To quicken the process totally ignore any horse handicapped on the minimum weight or within one kg of the minimum weight - often you will be left with only a handful of runners.

In WFA and set weights races, do not award any points for 'handicapping' because there hasn't been any, but double the points for the combined prizemoney ranking.

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-28 18:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-28 18:56 ]

La Mer,

Thank you for your suggestion. I have used Average Prizemoney in a ranking before, but never thought to combine it with other factors.

Some good food for thought there...

Again thanks.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Another man who thinks the same way as me.:wink:

Here are my suggestions:

Divide the API figure by the average of all the API's in the race.
Divide the API for the last three races of each horse and divide that by the career API. of each horse.
Then add the two figures together...
Example:

Choose	        $3,647.50	$2,400.00	3.12

Quickwyn	$1,620.21	$15,800.00	10.85

Selmoore Star	$2,378.45	$1,100.00	2.07

Corporate Mystery$697.50	$  900.00	 1.76

Saint Pago	 $745.29	$  800.00	 1.58

Bletchley's Hero $927.50	$2,400.00	3.21

Oliuto	         $355.00	$1,800.00	5.31

	

Saint Pago won and Quikwyn ran second

Wild Flood	$3,123.00	$7,000.00	7.04

Exbury Fair	$1,682.50	$3,800.00	4.85

English Girl	$ 580.00	$4,100.00	7.96

Liquid Honey	$   0.00	$    0.00	0.00

No Bed Of Roses	$   0.00	$    0.00	0.00

Oh So Blue	$   0.00	$    0.00	0.00

Koninderie	$   366.67	$1,100.00	3.56

Even You	$  100.00	$  200.00	2.15

Persian Copper	$    0.00	$    0.00	0.00

English Girl won paying $7.70 with Wild Flood and No Bed Of Roses running 2nd &
3rd

Society Miss	$5,630.42	$9,000.00	3.75

Irish Air	$4,502.96	$1,800.00	2.12

Native American	$2,025.30	$7,100.00	4.28

Chief Wild Eagle$3,463.00	$    0.00	1.32

Damascus Road	$2,052.70	$17,500.00	9.31

Bonzara	        $1,019.07	$7,000.00	7.26

Centagon	$1,500.61	$2,600.00	2.31

Gala Boy	$3,439.38	$9,500.00	4.08

I Knew	        $1,280.00	$1,000.00	1.27

Merry Minka	$1,262.83	$0.00	0.48

Native American won with Society Miss and Centagon running 2nd & 3rd.

Obviously there are other criteria you need to add to this, but it's a start.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-28 20:48 ]

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for your insight. I can understand your words, but I am lost with the numbers in what appears to be the 'third' column.

Maybe I am missing something you can explain simply.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Sorry, I couldn't fit in all the columns to the page.

The third column is the result of the calculation below.

API/Average API of all horses in the race

PLUS

Last three starts API/ Horse career API



_________________
"The man who can correctly assess Class can have all the money he wants and he only needs a dollar to start". - Pittsburg Phil

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-29 12:09 ]

Another method (maybe a bit long winded) is to divide the total prize money earned by the number of starts, times the win %, twice, (penalises the less consistent) divided by the weight given.
eg Lonhro in his last race...$5632510 divided by 34 starts = 165562 x 76% x 76% = 95629 divided by 58 = 1649. Grand Armee was 2nd pick on 317.
This method had Makybe Diva well in front in the Sydney Cup, & gave County Tyrone very little chance.

"divided by the weight given."

if given 55, and apprentice is -3,
is this to be considered ?

Thanks for clearing that up CP.

Mark, that is an unusual approach. Do you use it regularly?

I believe there is a method that revolves around Avergae Prizemoney per Win, then ranked by Win %.

Does anyone know if this stat is kept online or in any publications?


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Luckboy,

I think if you use my scenario in conjunction with Mark's and run some trials you might be pleasantly surprised.

What both methods do is to identify class, recent form and consistency.
By using the last 3 API, you are dismissing horses whose career best is long gone and who are racing in the best class and form of their career.

I'll post more on this later, with some figures and converting this to odds as I have to go out now.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-29 13:37 ]