Hello all. I can recall seeing some great stats in the past for performance of favourites.

And do you think I can find them now when I want them hehe. NO!!

Can someone please assist with the historical percentage of favs winning, running second and third.

If someone out there is really organised they may have these figures broken down to include different percentages for different starting prices also.

Help would be much appreciated.

Ta

Basically, I think it works out to be around 30% wins and 60% placings (including the wins). I'm sure somebody else will have more accurate figures for you.

I pulled my finger out and did some more key word searches on the forum. I have half answered my question in the context of a 600 race sample - being for the first SP paper favourite
1st--2nd--3rd--top 3
25% 16% 13% 54%

Awaiting other replies...

Paper favourites and actual race favourites aren't always the same. I would suggest that backing the horse that starts favourite on the day would give you a better strike rate, but a lower average dividend.

Here are some intersting facts and figures for u all:

Favs win approx. 30% of all races
2nd Favs win approx. 20% of all races
3rd Favs win approx. 16% of all races
4th Favs win approx. 14% of all races

So the first four favourites win approx. 80% of all races


TAB no.1 wins about 15% of the time
TAB no.2 wins about 13% of the time
TAB no.3 wins about 11% of the time
TAB no.4 wins about 10% of the time

...7 out of 10 races are won by the first 6 runners

ALSO...on average, barriers 1-6 win 60% of all races


Horses who won, that ran 1st last start: 25%
Horses who won, that ran 2nd last start: 16%
Horses who won, that ran 3rd last start: 12%
Horses who won, that ran 4th last start: 9%

i.e. 60% of races are won by horse that ran 1st-4th last start

ALSO CONSIDER:

1st in at least one of its last two starts: 31%
2nd in at least one of its last two starts: 29%

Another 60%er

Chuck

Lies, damn lies, & statistics.
So from these figures we look for a horse that is in the first 4 in betting, is number 1-6, starts from barrier 1-6, ran in the first 4 at it's last start, and ran 1st or 2nd at one of it's previous 2 starts.
It will probably be favourite & it should win, using these stats, around 10% of the time.

jeez...Cameron asked a question and i ansered it...i didn't expect people to start jumping down my throats about it. I didn't make them up - they're not my personal statitics remember...i just thought i would be helpful by getting cameron closer to the conclusion he trying to draw

Chuck

Chuck

Sorry Chuck, not having a go at you. Just pointing out that statistics on their own are next to useless.

mark u have a lot to learn.

Cameron there are a lot of systems based around the fav,s.The one that I personally like is favorite in prepost and top rater in Zipform in the sportsman + the horse must start favorite on course.Put 7>16 days last start & 10 to 17 days 2nd last start.That,s it. Note: u won,t go broke backing them for a place.