I WANT MY STATS FOR HORSES HAVING THEIR 3RD OR 4TH START THIS TIME IN!!!!!!!!!

I have asked nicely, I have put up with trying to get a discussion on stats going only to find shots fired across my bow and the discusion degenerate into a philosophical craniumfest on market manipulation. Please, this is all I ask.

I have recently had a Charisma Bypass and it seems to have been successful.

& you wont generate them yourself because??

3 years results.
3 runs from a spell= 14199 races
win 9.97 %
place 29.27 %
Average dividend $7.94

4 runs from a spell=11,753 races
win 10.54 %
place 30.66 %
Average dividend = $8.39

Hope thats of some help.
Cheers.
darky.

davez, I won't generate them because I don't have the resources.

Thanks darkydog2002.

Further to one of my previous ramblings. Yesterday at Sandown there was one eye catching bet. "Never a factor when well fancied here last time. Most promising before that". That's what the scribe said. The horse was 3rd up this time in, a bad second up run after a good 1st up run. WHAT HAPPENED??????? Punters backed away. Exactly as I suggested. You get a good price for an improving horse (3rd up and increasing distance) that is lightly raced and shows promise ..... because of ONE poor run. There ain't no Holy Grail, but as I suggested rather flippantly, some good systems have a folloing that ensures the horse starts at shorted odds than what the form suggests it should. Over the long term you cannot win under this scenario. Ya need the opposite. Ya need the sheep to "bail" and take advantage of "over the odds".

I really know JS, but I do know that punters are "SHEEP". $8.10!!!!!!!!!!! for one ********** run.

I think it was BGHWAN who once said.
LOOK OUTSIDE THE CIRCLE.
Cheers.
Darky.

Hi Butternut

A professional punter friend told me once you cannot follow form. I have been winning ever since.

My personal view for what its worth is that is a delicate balance between many variables and punters as you suggest easily forget.

Eg. Vaincross in adelaide a few weeks ago 1st up against some very ordinary horses $19 winner. What has it done since sent out fav.

When it won it was running in a $17000 open handicap. The handicapper gave it 60kg.

This horse had been running in much much better company.

At those odds it was huge overs.

70% of fav. lose






regards
ubetido

[ This Message was edited by: ubetido on 2004-07-29 18:49 ]

obviously few of you lot have kids, as a golden rule of parenting is to never reward a tantrum :smile:

Aw shucks .I like a bloke who knows want they want.
Cheers.
darky.

Good on ya DD, I throttled my kids at birth....no tantrums.

Far-Canal

ubetido,
Congrats on your first sentence, no words ever posted on this forum make more sense.

Since racing began millions have tried to beat it, not many have succeeded.

The reason being is that 99% rely on form and form alone.

One MUST look outside the norm to have any chance of success.

Sorry Butternut but just couldn't help myself :wink: