If one does their own ratings & prices and one has their top rated @ 3.50 and 3 others @ say 5.00,7.50,12.00 and the books are offering 2.90 your top rated and 6.0,8.50,14.00 respectively do you not bet your top rater but still bet your other 3 because you would be TAKING UNDERS in Your OPINION.Is it not going against the PRINCIPLE of BETTING against THE BEST RATED HORSE IN YOUR OPINION.

The idea is once you have completed your ratings, you then test them over, a number of series of races (this could be hundreds or more) you then would find the strike rate based on highest to lowest ranked runner according to your ratings, you can also isolate all runners according to your pricing (in percentile groups) an test your margin of error.
In your example your if your Top rater had a 36% strike rate followed by 18.9 for the 2nd ranked an 13.5 for the third ranked an 8.1 for the fourth ranked, your could compute your combined edge on this race and if it satisfied your min edge % criteria you would then either hedge &/or dutch all your runners.



[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-10-25 19:29 ]

The overs you found were quite small,and going against you top rater would not be a good idea in this particular scenario.

And Woofa,you scare me with your stuff sometimes.If what you are saying makes sense to you,I'd say you would have to be a qualified Rocket Scientist or Nuclear Physicist.

How about this, if you were standing on a corner with a jar filled with Jelly Beans an you wanted to find out the number of jelly beans in the jar, the best method is to ask as many ppl as possible to make a guess, you would then find the average of all guesses,the answer will will be pretty close to the actual number of jelly beans.

Now take it another step, the Tote is the group consensus of the chances in each race, which in reality is pretty close to what happens, when you make adjustments for breakage the strike rates in each percentile group is as good as it gets.

Now you compile your own probabilities/ratings an you find there is a variance between what the Tote probs(adjusted for breakage) an the actual.

You now measure the variance between yours an their's, but now you break it down further by Post Position an by percentile group(based on your probs).

So now when you complete your Ratings you apply the above variances to your ratings an you now have a set of probs based on the past history of group consensus.

So now i'm sitting at home in front of my computers and i now see in an upcoming race a runner who's offical tote payoff is considerably lower then the group consensus payoff(your ratings adjusted by variance), which is lower again than my original ratings.

Now what do you do?

Answer it correctly an you will start swimming with the sharks




[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-11-01 16:44 ]

thetout,

No, you do not back your top rater!!!

You have marked it a 28% chance of winning the race.

Now, let's say this race is run 100 times and each time you place $1 on your top rater to win at $2.90. According to your prices it will win 28% of the time and lose the other 72%.

Therefore, on 28 occasions you will collect $2.90 and on 72 occasions you will collect zero.

Now, your total collect will be 28*$2.90=$81.20

Less the $100 outlay.

Leaves you a $19.80 loser.

Catfish?

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-11-03 09:56 ]