advise needed for horse programme
 

hi punters i'm working on a computer programme to asses the past performance on the gallops to pick winners,the advise i'm after is what percentages would you give each topic to equal %100.....

these are the topics and my evaluations?

fitness %30 consistant placings


weight %10 strike rate


track %10 strike rate


distance %10 strike rate


strts since spell %10 peak


barrier %5


jockey strike rate %15 a top 5 only


trainer strike rate %10 a top 5 trainer only

....

Try looking at the AAP racing and Sports site - for free you can look at something they call "neural algorithms". Doesn't work, but at least it'll save you the bother of writing your own software.

[QUOTE=the rostram]hi punters i'm working on a computer programme to asses the past performance on the gallops to pick winners,the advise i'm after is what percentages would you give each topic to equal %100.....

Hi!
It is very hard to give precise advice since we do not know how you calculate your different ratings, ie. fitness, distance etc.
The easiest way for anyone would be to write a testing programme first. In addition to the usual form files you would need to have access to past results.
Or you could look up results and test that way, of course.
Use one selection criteria at a time (like fitness) compare your selections against the results and see the win or place strike rate. I you do it for all your selection criteria you will find that they give you different win or place percentage.
This will give you the importance of the different criteria.
BUT!!! there is always a but. It takes a lot of time! Also different class, distance, etc. races will give different outcomes, so you have your work cut out. But this is the only way you will get reliable results, and as a programmer I can tell you, going the long way is a better option then trying for quick results and loosing your shirt.
Beleive me if it were easy to write good handicapping programmes, the drovers dog would do it.
Unless you really know what you are doing, you could save yourself a lot of time and money by paying for reputable rating services. Check out the one provided by this very site! And NO! I am in no way associated to them.