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Dandy Kid and the handicapper.
I am wondering if there has been a horse in recent times more favourably handicapped than Dandy Kid seems to have been.
On the 26th. June 2004, The kid ran 2nd in an open hcp. at MV with 58kg. He subsequently won 3 more open hcps. at the Valley handicapped at 58 kg. each time. Two more placings followed,(including one at WFA ) culminating with his latest win handicapped on only 58.5kg. According to my reckoning, Dandy Kid won 3 races, was placed twice and recieved a penalty of only 0.5kg. Dandy Kid's second last run at MV resulted in a 2nd placing carrying 59kg. Instead of being penalised at least 1.5kg. for that placing, he came down 0.5kg for his next run. It is not surprising that his record at the Valley is so good. Anyone care to disagree.? |
Hello,
It's a fully computerised handicapping system being used now. On 27th. November Dandy Kid was handicapped with 59kg. and finished third, beaten two lengths by Ruben. On that basis it is quite reasonable for Dandy Kid to drop 0.5kg. when meeting a similar field at its next start, including Ruben who rose 1.5kg. On a traditional weights basis - 1.5kg. = 1 length Ruben was still better off at the weights than Dandy Kid, meeting Dandy Kid only 2kg. worse off for a 2 lengths win, not 3kg. worse. (Note I am ignoring apprentice claims in this as I am only considering the weight allotted by the handicapper.) If punters believe the system has flaws then it provides some great betting opportunitities. Plenty of punters certainly didn't think Dandy Kid was a weight certainty before last Saturday's race. That's why he was sent out at $6.50. We picked Dandy Kid as offering huge value above $4.20 and it was a bet for Pro-Punter racing members. Regards, Neil. |
Thanks for your reply Neil.
I understand the handicapping of Dandy Kid relative to Ruben. It seems strange however that Ruben seemed to be penalised only 1.5kg. for his prior win whereas it is normally 2.5kg. Maybe the limit was different. In the wash-up anyway, I don't think anyone could dispute that Majestic Flush should have won the race by a good margin. |
Not many disagreements EH!?.
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