Ratings folly??
 

I've got an idea that if I ticked the remember me box this might not happen.

My thread concerned the ratings given to 2 winners at the recent Geelong meeting (Ozeform) and highlights the anomalies in ratings when they seem to be based on overall time on the day.
The 1st horse, Dance of Ascot, a 3yof. C1 winner carrying 55.5kg was given a rating of 53.5.
The 2nd horse, Air Cooled, a 6yo C6 winner carrying 57kg was given a rating of 51.
Dance of Ascot ran 1.10-0 for the 1200m. and Air Cooled ran 1.11.3.
It would seemed to me to be absolute folly to use these ratings were these 2 neddies to meet next time out.
Any comments from the ratings experts on this point?

It seems reasonable to me to compare the times of two horses that ran at the same track, over the same distance on the same day (especially for sprint distances).

In fact, assuming that:

1. The condition of the track did not vary (i.e. become wetter or dry out);

2. The tempo of the races was similar; and

3. there were no other factors, such as a headwind, to influence the times;

then the only sensible analysis is that the quicker horse should receive the higher rating.

Thanks for your reply Fil.
Perhaps you might visit Ozeform and check the ratings given to El Man Goss and Air cooled at their previous runs to see my point.

Agreed. They've got that wrong by about 10kgs.

personally, i like the ozeform ratings, but as always the problem with following other peoples ratings is that there will always be times when you do not agree with their assessment of certain races.

I just rated Dance at Ascots race based on the Ozeform figures and came up with a rating of the equivalent of 58 kg. The exposed form of that field looked quite strong and the win was worthy of a new pb. Why the 5kg difference? i have no clue

and why they gave Air Cooled a rating of 51 when he has a couple of 63's in the bag is perplexing. El man Goss was coming off a 60 as well.

Are these figures time based? they could well be. Times are very srtange things to try and quantify. Good horses sometimes run slow time and therefore rate low, but the form from the race ends up ok.

ratings are a very good tool, and i guess we just have to put up with the odd anomalies, nothing to do with this game is ever simple. they also underrated Super Elegants win by 4 or 4.5kg , Pray in Vain's win etc.

You just have to get a feel for a horses true ability by looking at a string of past ratings.

this is how i rated them.
1 Air Cooled (NZ) (11) 59.0 6yo gr g (J Edwards at Geelong) J Mott (a 2.0)
"air cooled(good)(900)(caulfield)21-10-00)8"
tw 59.0, Factor: -3.3965

2 El Man Goss (5) 55.0 5yo b g (Ms C Paisley at Geelong) N Ryan
tw 55.0, Factor: 0.877

this puts air cooled 4 lengths ahead of El Man Goss. (on my ratings)
also Air cooled a listed horse .

Air Cooled drawn awkwardly in 11 El Man Goss drawn 5.
I think ratings should show a trigger as to why the connections think the horse can win. Air Cooled weight swing was very good.
Beaten an inch last start by a horse carrying 4.5 kgs less. El man Goss beaten narrowly by a horse carrying more weight than it.

a good result.

Air cooled's run was super 2 starts ago. wide barrier had to do alot of work firstup and still went down by a whisker. He was only going to improve with that run under his belt. Times don't tell you he was sometimes 3 wide in running ...
I don't use times in my ratings ....i think tempo and sectionals paint a more acurate picture...

G'day Maverick and Topsy.
I was actually referring to the ratings given to Air Cooled and El Man Goss after the race, compared to the ratings given to Dance of Ascot and Lady Larissa in a C1 on the same day.
This was merely to point out an apparent anomaly for any one who uses the Ozeform ratings.
They seem to be base ratings based on overall time, compared to time on the day.
Osull DJ once informed me that these ratings are not the ones used for the Read ratings that appear around some Pub Tab venues.
Brave Chief hit the nail on the head with his last line.
You have to gauge the ability of a horse for today's race by looking at a string of past ratings.

good day imagele.
sorry i was wondering whether it was a before or after rating.

i suppose the way i rate it is always a now situation.

i have not used long term ratings because of the tendency for horses to peak occasionally even with the horse Air Cooled is not a prolific winner and is likely to be picked up at the peak of his form.
long term ratings for most horses are not reliable due to their low performance levels. e.g. peaking now and again for an infrequent win.

also they are a lot of work which i suppose puts me off them.
but good luck with them.

Speaking of anomalies, the Unitab ratings have Sandown R2-7 Search Captain rated on top today. I don't think any of the tipsters give it a hope and when I rated the race, I had it a clear last. Sometimes when there's a 100 rater that everyone ignores it gets up at big odds, but I really can't see that happening today. What do you all think? Does it have a hope?