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-   -   BROWNLOW BETTING (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7073)

rabbitz 14th January 2005 07:37 AM

BROWNLOW BETTING
 
Away from Chris Judd $9
Nick Riewoldt $13
There is some value early
Gary Ablett jnr $61
good enough for a tenner
Cheers

Sportz 14th January 2005 07:41 AM

Rabbitz,

In conjunction with our tipping comps this year, we'll all have to have a few futures picks before week 1 of the comps and see how we go.

discipline pays 17th January 2005 01:37 PM

Betting on brownlow pre season is like picking melbourne cup winner in December !! Best to wait till September next year and still get around $6 on main chances, that way you are only betting on eligible players.

moeee 18th January 2005 04:44 PM

My Hero!
 
Never seen your stuff,discipline pays,but if you can keep preaching like that and live up to your name,I'll be having a few bets on your advice.
Keep on posting.

discipline pays 18th January 2005 08:05 PM

thanks moeee nice to get some positive feedback. hope to live up to my name and return consistent profit.

surely brownlow betting is fraught with danger. i would love to see results over last 5 years re preseason markets compared to end of home away . apart from bucley ( and you would need to divide divvy by 3 ) and maybe judd last year how much has been p***** up against the wall on favourites too early. remember last year a big go for hird early season was gone a long way from home and tredrea was surely a good thing beaten. the romatic notion of snagging a 150-1 winner is outweighed by fact that 150s is sometimes gross UNDERS, gary ablett is a very good young player but is too short, to give an example

Sportz 18th January 2005 08:45 PM

Yeah, I think you're right there, but with the tipping comp, it'll be purely play money we're betting with. I wouldn't really advise anyone bet on the Brownlow pre-season. So many players get knocked out of contention through injury and suspension and you can usually still get quite good odds on the day of the count.

rabbitz 19th January 2005 04:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
Yeah, I think you're right there, but with the tipping comp, it'll be purely play money we're betting with. I wouldn't really advise anyone bet on the Brownlow pre-season. So many players get knocked out of contention through injury and suspension and you can usually still get quite good odds on the day of the count.



I didnt realise there were so many conservatchickens on this forum
$61 @ $5=$305
Not a big deal surely

Sportz 19th January 2005 04:22 PM

Been burnt a few times before Rabbitz. That's all.

Good luck with YOUR bet though and you're right, it is only $5 so no harm done.

discipline pays 19th January 2005 04:50 PM

yeah i agree that $5 is nothing, if ablett has a good year and starts at 20s on night you can tell everyone that you backed him at huge price. everyone will think you are a genius !!!


a bit of fun for $5.

like the guy i know who had $50 on brad hardie at 50s when he won, he still tells anyone who will listen the story .

haveadip 19th January 2005 11:23 PM

There is alot more value in the Brownlow medal than G.Ablett Jnr surely, keep the $5. Has there been a player in the last 5 years that has won from over 100/1 pre season. Also some of the odds seem very very strange when you compare 2 players. For example Tex Walker is at 301/1 while Scott Thompson is at 1001/1. Surely you could put half the players at 1000/1 As most wont get over 5 votes let alone win the thing.


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