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-   -   Box Trifecta (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7220)

haveadip 22nd January 2005 11:27 PM

Box Trifecta
 
Is it possible to come out with a profit from boxing 5 dogs in a Greyhound race. Say if anyone can check from their database for boxing 5 favourites from the pre post odds how much of a profit/loss would be made. From what i have seen there is more money using this system in country tracks Sale/Warragul etc than Sandown and The Meadows. With looking at form there may be more chance of one picking up value and more of a profit from a 5 dog Box Trifecta.

crash 23rd January 2005 07:12 AM

If you can select the correct dogs, sure you can make a profit ...8-)

Box trifectors are the poorest value tri. going though, because you are assigning [and paying for] an equal chance of winning to all selections.

Far better value would be 2x3x5 or even 3x4x7 for instance. Poor prize pools with dogs are a problem and then there is the scandalous TAB % take applied to all exotics working against you also.

Chuck 23rd January 2005 08:29 AM

good to see you back Crash!

moeee 23rd January 2005 09:07 AM

Nice stuff in that post Crash.
Keep up the good work.

Sportz 23rd January 2005 09:14 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Far better value would be 2x3x5 or even 3x4x7 for instance.


But most people when they take those sorts of trifectas would have the favoured horses for 1st and the longer priced runners for the placings. This means you lose the chance of getting the bigger divs which usually come when one of your roughies gets up for 1st. I also don't like the thought of picking all 3 placed horses but not getting them in the right order.

I think a box trifecta gives you added security because you have more horses running for 1st. Yesterday for the tipping comp, I was originally going to take a box trifecta on R7 at Belmont, but then I stupidly changed my mind at the last minute so I could add an extra horse. If I had stuck to a box trifecta, I would have got a fair collect as my 4th pick won.

moeee 23rd January 2005 09:20 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
If I had stuck to a box trifecta, I would have got a fair collect as my 4th pick won.


YES Sportz,Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
But don't ever forget."IF" your mother had balls,she'd be your father.

Sportz 23rd January 2005 09:31 AM

Ahh, okay. I'll try to remember that.

Merriguy 23rd January 2005 11:27 AM

Have to agree with Crash, Haveadip.

A boxed 5 would cost you $60. How many tris come up at less than that :(

Add in a miss or two and you are quickly behind. The fav. is so often odds on --- and something like 65% of the time (I believe) it will be in the winning trifecta.

woof43 23rd January 2005 11:47 AM

Keys
 
Hi,
You need to understand how the public will be betting to make good profits in the tri's,that is at what odds do they switch from doing a Standout with the Fav. to Boxing.

You'll find that the races at The Meadows an Sandown Park can be quite even an there are only a few Overlay combinations to be found in each race, cause of this effect of Boxing at longer Fav odds.

You should look at the Harville formula, with some slight adjustments, and use that as the basis to constructing your exotics, that combined with a Modified arithmatic staking method will ensure you will find it quite beneifical.


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