Need Help
 

Can someone help me with this? I have an idea for a system.

The system has only 4 rules. They are:

Last start less than 21 days.

Stike rate more than 25%

Less than $5.00 at its last start.

And drawn in barriers 1 to 8

Benny

Hi Benny,

It doesn't look good mate, and I did it exactly as per your rules on metro races only.....

12.72% S/R
-21.93% Loss on turnover
(And that includes an $82.60 winner) :eek:

I then looked at last start winners using the same rules and the results are even worse.

12.48% S/R
-29.12% Loss on turnover
(Includes $55.30 winner).

As they say. It's bak to the drawing board.

Benny

Try only races between 1400m and 2000m. And for a place only.

Benny

WIN S/R 22.27%
LOT -12.64

PLACE S/R 49.31%
LOT -10.58%

I could be onto something.

Try last start within 14 days

And a strike rate of 20% or better.

And between 1400m and 2000m

Benny

No, both win and place return a -9% loss on turnover, and don't forget, the more tighter the filters...the less selections you have. So it might seem you're on the right track, only because the filters are reducing the overall loss on runners anyway.

Benny,

Last start price is a fairly meaningless form rule as it applies to the class and condt. of the runner's last race only. The horses next race is often not a similar race to it's last start [different track, distance, weight, class etc.].

I always apply a price rule for the contested race at hand and I don't worry about a low[ish] number of bets, which is often the main attribute of all winning systems.

An easy preliminary test you can do on any system you make up is to apply this rule: - if the system shows more than 10 bets from all available Sat. meetings [it will show far less on any other day], discard the system as it will be a loosing one. I call that my No.1 System's systems rule !!!