WTA
 

Ana Ivanovic v Maria Vento-Kabchi
Qatar Open

New 'wonderkid' Ivanovic up against a very ordinary Vento-Kabchi whose recent form has been, to say the least, poor. Ivanovic has some great scalps in 2005 and recently won her first WTA tournament (Canberra).

$1.33 available WillHill - 1 unit.

Players to be weary in Qatar - Bartoli (suspect knee), Bovina (resuming form long injury layoff), Sharapova(resuming from flu), Suarez (resuming from long layoff - dodgy foot)

Dally Randriantefy v Angela Haynes
Acupulco

True clay courter and experienced Randriantefy up against young hard court player Haynes who rarely competes on the dirt. Haynes is also coming off some ordinary form last week losing to qulaifier Bondarenko. Career marred by nagging shoulder injury.

$1.40 available at 5Dimes - 1 unit.

Players to be weary of in Acupulco - LlagosteraVives (recent tendonitis), Domachowska (recent shoulder strain)

Interesting first post...

I thought WTA was an abbreviation for Wangaratta.
Surely it's not Weight To Age?

Day2
 

Stosur vs Sugiyama
Qatar

Stosur's progressed through the qualies even though she was beaten by the impressive Kirilenko in the third round. However both girls knew before the game started that the loser would progress to the main draw as the "lucky loser" - so I'm not too concerned about the result. Sugiyama's played
poorly since last year's US Open and has lost her four games this season (including some ordinary opponents). She's still a good player but is getting old by tennis standards so her career may well have peaked (she ceratinly doesn't move as well anymore). Stosur'warm up through the qualies, her strong start to 2005 season (two hardcourt finals appearances), and her ability to hold her own serve make her good value.

Stosur $1.87 @ SportOdds

Day 3
 

Schiavone v Sugiyama
Qatar

I stick by my assessment of Sugiyama and put her win over Stosur down to Samantha's very ordinary play. Her serve and volley was so confused that Sugiyama continuously passed her down the line. Schiavone, while not setting the world on fire this season, has only lost to quality players such as Myskina and Molik. She also has solid 3-0 h2h record against Sugiyama with these wins coming while Sugiyama was in top form.

Schiavone $1.51 @ Pinnacle.

Domachowska v Osterloh
Acapulco

According to yesterday’s interview, Domachowska is over her shoulder complaint and displaying confidence. She traveled to Mexico a week early to acclimatize to the conditions after her short layoff so should be ready for the match. Domachowska prefers clay and is 53 wins/23 losses while Osterloh is 24/41 on the dirt. The first round didn’t provide much insight – Domachowska warming up by thrashing a “no name” and Osterloh getting past a lackluster Waters (who is no star on clay either).

Domachowska $1.40 generally available

Day 3 con't
 

Randriantefy vs Perebiynis

Slightly riskier proposition. Randriantefy is one those players who always starts the season slowly and then improves during the clay swing. Her 108/55 record on the dirt speaks for itself, even though a fair proportion of those games were on the end of year clay court Challenger circuit. Perebiynis is no slouch on the dirt but doesn't have Randriantefy's experience. Her poor start to the season and early departure from Bogata (clay) last week may count against her. Perebiynis won their only encounter but this was at the Olympics and on a different surface so I'm not sure what conclusions can be drawn.Slight edge to Randraintefy at the price.

Randriantefy $1.76 @ 5Dimes

ty Marco
 

Thanks for the tip on the WTA.

Didn't have much on but enjoyed the win

Do you post here often?

karla

Day 4
 

Gagliardi vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Gagliardi's a clear favourite for mine. Her 6-2 6-1 domination of Pin in the first round was rather encouraging while Serra Zanetti surprised many by beating the competent Llagostera Vives. However Llagostera Vives withdrew from Bogata last week with leg tendonitis and was a doubtful starter for this tournament. Head to head's favour Gagliardi 2-0 and while only one was on Clay (Italian Open 2001), both players had similar rankings to their current status (result 6-3 6-0). Gagliardi's slow start to the year is offset by Serra Zanetti's 1win/5loss since January, plus Gagliardi has the advantage of a good Clay workout in Bogata last week.

Gagliardi $1.55 @ 5Dimes

Pennetta vs Diaz-Oliva
Acapulco
Another favourite at a short price. Pennetta's in the best form of her career as displayed in her strong showing against Schruff in the first round. She did drop an early game but soon closed Schruff out with top rate finishing. Of course Diaz-Oliva is capable of an upset but I think it unlikely. She made the final in Acupulco in 2003 but was very lucky with Suarez's first round retirement and then only beat the likes of Muller, Vaskova and a clay-shy Asagoe. Since then Diaz-Oliva has only beaten one Top-50 player in 20 or so tour games with most of her time being spent on the challenger circuit.My calculations rate Pennetta as a 77.8 per cent chance so there's value at the price.

Pennetta $1.42 @ 5Dimes

Day 4 cont'd
 

Martinez vs Hantuchova

The glamorous Hantuchova vs the dour old war-horse Martinez is generating lots of punting action on the exchanges. Martinez upset the classy Myskina yesterday and played very well. Her serve was a little inconsistent but she was superb from the baseline which will suit against Hantuchova's style.
Martinez also recently beat young up-and-comers Peer, Groenefeld and Linetskya showing she still has plenty in the tank during what will be her last year on tour. To quote Martinez " "I feel healthy. Beating the No.5 in the world does a lot for my confidence. It took a few days to get used to the conditions here but I'm playing well, aggressive, and I didn't let her play her game today." Hantuchova got passed the talented Bovina yesterday in 3 sets but it's hard to draw conclusions as Bovina was returning from an injury layoff. It's generally thought that Hantuchova lacks the patience needed to counter Martinez's very crafty slice and spin - great to watch. Head to heads favour Martinez 3-1. Interestingly she opened at $2.83 at Pinnacle but the price was hammered in to $2.54 within 15 minutes.

Martinez $2.54 @ Pinnacle

Day 5
 

Randriantefy vs Loit
Acapulco

I've explained above my general feelings on Radriantefy. Loit is certainly on her favourite surface but has played rather inconsistantly this year. Her recent loss to the lowly ranked Fernandez, her struggle against Beltrame in Round 2 and 0/4 start to the hardcourt season suggests she is vulnerable. Loit leads the h2h - all of which were on clay - but all of which were relatively close. I don't believe she should be this short in the market so Randriantefy represents value.

Randriantefy $2.75 @ Sportingbet.


Pennetta vs Osterloh.
Acapulco

Again, I've explaied my general feelings on both these players above. Osterloh is really riding her luck - this is her best clay performance ever - in what has been an ordinary season for her. However her luck runs out today as Pennetta has been magnificent this week in Acupulco and last week in Bogota. Every one will agree that there's been some upsets this week but I surprised Pennetta isn't shorter than her current quotes. It's hard to make money in the long term betting so short but I still believe there's value in today's price.

Pennetta @$1.24 @ Sportodds.