Afl Match Rating's
 

I have been tinkering with a way of working out match ratings using each teams gols scored and conceeded for thier last six games.

Example In round 1

Brisbane vs St Kilda

The last 6 games Brisbane scored 100 goals and conceeded 58
-----------------St Kilda scored 102 goals and conceeded 86

Brisbane's Rating is 42
St Kilda's-Rating is 16

Therefore, the match rating is 26

Anyone have any thoughts.

Benny

You are playing with percentages there Benny.
What exactly are you gonna do with this 26?

Convert it to the probably of a home win and an away win based on the last 5 years of results and turn it into a fair price.

It might not be ready until next season. I'll see how I go.

Benny

Considering my form at the moment Benny,it's not really apt for me to criticize.
But sometimes you scare me Benny!

Have to agree with Mo. I can't see that system winning long term.
There's no aspect for injuries, current form, team match up's etc.
Bris will probly struggle against the saints rd1 wherever it is played. No lynch, No Brown who will take a big grab in there forward line if they can hold Bradshaw?.
These are the things you need to be considering when placing ur footy bets.
If you dont have the knowledge, DONT BET.
I know next to nothing about league and the only time I have a SMALL bet is when I hear some sound reasoning on these forums.

Considering the tipping form I have been in over the past few years I think I will let the experts do it for me. That is I will give each of the tipsters a rating based on last years performance, then add the ratings depending on who they tip and come up with a winner that way. Then from the tipsters who selected that team, take an average of their predicted margins and use those to place my bets. Any thoughts?

Dr Ron.
Certainly a logical,but extremely complicated approach.
But I suggest a more simpler manner would be to suss out Mug Punta's thread.
He's hot at the minute and was hot last year.
But be careful when he gets too cocky.Thems the time to give it a wide berth.
You can recognize those tips by when you can picture him jumping up and down and demanding that you back the selection!

Love ur work MO!
Let's not get 2 carried away with how HOT i am yet. But, I did ok last year overall.
Probly a fair call about when to steer clear of my selections but how did Port do it to me!!
If Brissie hadda done the right thing my collects linked in with judd and gehrig would have won me a fortune. If im in the same boat this year i will be laying off as SPORTZ does and making sure of some profit.

Exactly Mugsy.
Didn't hardly raise your voice when tipping Juddy and I must have been out of the room when you tipped G-Train!
But I'm sure even my next door neighbours knew you bagged the Power!

Rating Modifications
 

Firstly,if it wasn't me and it wasn't you Chucky,then I think the guest don't like your observations regarding records and replies.

Mainly for your interest Sportznut.
I'm gonna write down all information I pick up as a bonus or a penalty towards the coming weeks round and then add or subtract from the teams ratings.
I'll show you what I mean soon!