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-   -   The CD System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7966)

Glenno 10th March 2005 02:59 PM

The CD System
 
The following system, known as "The CD System", is really simple. You back any horse that is a previous course/distance winner in the race, provided there are no other previous course winners in the race. (It doesn't matter how many other distance winners there are in the race.)

12/2/2005

No qualifiers.

19/2/2005

Moonee Valley
Race 5: Rockford Bay UNPLACED ($15.00; no place betting)

Eagle Farm
Race 1: Sir Monashee FIRST $4.20/$1.30 ($4.80 at 1/4 odds)

26/2/2005

Caulfield
Race 1: Lodger UNPLACED ($31.00 at 1/4 odds)

Canterbury
Race 2: Carry On Cutie FIRST $2.60/$1.50 ($3.10 at 1/4 odds)

5/3/2005

No qualifiers.

Selections: 4
Wins: 2 (50.00%)
Places (including wins): 2 (50.00%)
Win return: $6.80 (SuperTAB); $7.90 (SP)
Place return: $2.80 (SuperTAB); $3.48 (SP)
Number of runners: 31 (12.90%)
Number of winners: 4 (50.00%)
Relative frequency factor: 3.8750 (50.00/12.90)
Expected number of winners: 0.6298
Actual-to-expected ratio: 3.1754

Sarge1 10th March 2005 05:15 PM

Your so kind.. I'll add that to my stable. Do you think its advantagous to eliminate anything over say $12 ? Thanks

Sportz 10th March 2005 05:27 PM

Have you got a DVD system too Glenno? :)

Chuck 10th March 2005 07:07 PM

trust you sportz!

i might even think of burning this one - might be a keeper

Glenno 11th March 2005 12:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
Have you got a DVD system too Glenno? :)
There is no DVD System, since CD means "course/distance", not "compact disc".

Sportz 11th March 2005 01:06 PM

Ummm, yes, I knew that Glenno. It was just a little attempt at humour. Obviously not a very good one. :o

Well, DVD could stand for Distance/Value/Days since last start. I'm sure we could make a system up out of that. How about this:
Races 1400m or longer.
Placed at last start no more than 7 days ago.
Must be $5 plus in pre post betting.
Must be only one qualifier in the race.

Have no idea how well that one would go, but it doesn't sound too bad for something I thought up in seconds.

darkydog2002 11th March 2005 01:24 PM

SPORTZ.
 
Going on current commercial system prices should be worth around the $250 mark.
Probably work just as well as any of them.
What you require now is a bit of advertising.
The sort of thing like .
$300 to $300,000 in 3 weeks using 3 % of the bank etc etc.
Cheers.
darky.

Glenno 11th March 2005 01:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
Ummm, yes, I knew that Glenno. It was just a little attempt at humour. Obviously not a very good one. :o

Well, DVD could stand for Distance/Value/Days since last start. I'm sure we could make a system up out of that. How about this:
Races 1400m or longer.
Placed at last start no more than 7 days ago.
Must be $5 plus in pre post betting.
Must be only one qualifier in the race.

Have no idea how well that one would go, but it doesn't sound too bad for something I thought up in seconds.

For MSBA/Sat racing and using the Sportsman formguide, the results during the period 12/2/2005 to 5/3/2005 were as follows:

Selections: 14
Wins: 0 (0.00%)
Places (including wins): 4 (28.57%)
Place return: $10.60 (SuperTAB); $10.55 (SP)
Number of horses: 155 (9.03)
Number of winners: 14 (0.00%)
Expected number of winners: 1.6843

I have eliminated "win return", "relative frequency factor" and "actual-to-expected ratio" because there were no winners during the period.

Sportz 11th March 2005 02:00 PM

Well, I said I thought it up in a matter of seconds. It shows, doesn't it? :D

Chuck 11th March 2005 04:04 PM

i guess those commercial ones are made up in a few minutes then. bit more time, for slightly better results


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