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-   -   Staking Plan (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=8686)

Benny 14th April 2005 12:17 PM

Staking Plan
 
Much has been written on the subject of staking plans and it will continue.

I came up with the following for a seris of 10 bets.

1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5.

After the 10th bet you go back and start again. Any thoughts?

Benny

Rock Steady 14th April 2005 12:20 PM

That is a "chasing losses plan". I would prefer the following:
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 until the bank doubles then the plan would be 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2.

BJ 14th April 2005 12:23 PM

Well it really depends on what you are betting on......
It would also depend on what happens if you have a win in the middle. Are you in front then and start again, or do you drop down a couple of levels, or do you just start again after 10 bets?

If you want to know peoples opinions about something, you need to supply enough information so they can....

Benny 14th April 2005 12:24 PM

That's very interesting. Would it work over the long term.

Benny

Benny 14th April 2005 12:26 PM

You stop after a winner providing you are showing a profit then rule that seris and repeat until you strike a winner.

Does that help.

Benny

BJ 14th April 2005 12:26 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Steady
That is a "chasing losses plan". I would prefer the following:
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 until the bank doubles then the plan would be 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2.


And then what happens if your bank halves? Do you drop back to the 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1?
What you would be doing is betting more on your losing bets than your winning bets, hence lowering your return percentage. This is all ok if you are returning a healthy profit from a straight bet.

BJ 14th April 2005 12:27 PM

But what are you betting on?

Benny 14th April 2005 12:34 PM

Prepost favourites above $2.50 in Maiden races between 1100m and 1600m. I reckon I can pick 3 or 4 out of every 10 races.

Benny

BJ 14th April 2005 12:47 PM

It would basically depend on the average price paid and the strike rate as to how aggressive your staking plan should be.
I would imagine they would average about $3.5 suggesting that you may be increasing to quickly at the start.

My personal preference is to go up and down by percentages rather than set figures.
If you are getting divs of 3.5, you probably need your bet to be doubled after 3 losses rather than 2.

On your 10th bet, your outlay is $27, meaning that you must have a winner paying greater than $5 to be in front. Regardless, your next bet will be 1.
I think more thought needs to be put into it.
You need to work out your winning percentage and average dividend before making a staking plan....

Benny 14th April 2005 02:03 PM

Here are the results for my prepost favourites in Maiden races.

15/64 bets
Return $70.00/$64.00 outlay
Strike Rate 23.4%
Average div $4.66.

What sort of staking should I be using?

Benny


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