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Not worth it
I spend ages sorting out the probabilities for negative reward.
I am considering a new idea in punting,where you pick out games that could be closish and then backing the roughie. |
Interested to read in todays Sun that only 52% of faves have won this year, thus far, so if you'd backed every outsider you would be in front for the year!!
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That doesn't surprise me one bit. Outsiders tend to do better in the first half of the comp. Then it all settles down and the favourites do better in the second half. There have been a few surprise packets though. For example, I thought Port Adelaide and Richmond would be in opposite places on the table.
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I reckon there is nearly a good thing every week in afl/nrl/super 12
its a shame the super 12 is close to finishing this year.last weekend Geelong Cats,Canterbury Crusaders and Melbourne Storm all won,but you would have been very surprised if they didnt.I know they were short odds and you would have been lucky if you collected about $1.80 on a multi,but its not really too bad is it.this week geelong have opened at $1.20 on Uni tab which is pretty good considering they are at home to the hapless kangaroos,I thought $1.08 would have been about right. Cheers |
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Perhaps you should look back at previous results this year and find a common denominator with your winning tips. Or more importantly a common denominator with your losing tips. |
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Rabbitz, I had a look at the results of some of the best expert tipsters last week. These were the best success rates I saw: S12 77% AFL 71% NRL 62% |
Must admit there could have been a few S12 or NRL tipsters with better strike rates than I found, but unlike AFL tipsters, they were difficult to find on the net.
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Lobbing multis like that is harder than it looks. I had one going in the preseason comp and then Canterbury gets rolled!! Also, I think the Cats will win but the Roos have a great record at Kardinia Park. |
MO, i went with me gut last week, thought there were 4 laydown certs,HAWTHORN,W/BULLDOGS,W/COAST and SWANS, the others were a worry[couldnt back the tigers @ $1.20 with monopoly money]maybe you should trust your instincts rather than anything else,might save you a few grey hairs [if you have any], it only took me 2 minutes last week,i looked at the teams and picked,pity last week, for the 1st time this year i decided not to have a bet for a while [ ************ ************ ************] and i picked a few winners, i'm sure you come through mate.
cheers |
But maybe that's WHY you picked the winners Goldmember. Amazing how obvious the winners seem when no money's going on.
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